Welcome back to Warriors Weekly!
The Week that Was:
Like the final game of the week, Warriors fans got the expected final result in a somewhat unexpected way.
Golden State’s best game was probably their win against the Pistons even though that was a four point lead heading into the fourth quarter. It is also worth noting that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope did an excellent job on Stephen Curry but few players have KCP’s combination of length and speed.
After that, the Dubs pulled away from the Grizzlies late in the third and the Timberwolves in the fourth though never game felt truly in jeopardy.
Saturday was the craziest game of the season so far as the Nets were unconscious in the first quarter, leading by 15 points after those 12 minutes. The Warriors were (partially) saved by the Nets not fouling up three on the last possession and Brook Lopez missing a bunny at the hoop with 0.5 seconds left. Still, 11-0 is 11-0.
Stephen Curry Above the Break Three Update: Stephen Curry has made 49 above the break three pointers this season, more than six NBA teams and tied with three others. Curry has made 47.1% of these attempts, a better success rate than any NBA team from mid-range or above the break and all but two teams on corner threes. In fact, only one team is making more of their shots inside the paint (non restricted area) than Curry is making above the break threes: the Spurs.
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Soapbox: Four Factors, November 2015 Edition
As some of you will remember from last season, Dean Oliver discussed the “Four Factors” in his book Basketball on Paper as major pieces of team success. They are: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Last season’s Warriors were fabulous in a few different components and that helped explain their remarkable success. Through eleven games, many of those dynamics have held with some fascinating differences. Each of the Four Factors is measured in a way that negates things like pace which could make it hard to fairly compare different teams.
Shooting (40%)– The stat here is Effective Field Goal Percentage, which is like shooting % but values threes more because they are worth more points.
Last year, the Warriors pulled off an insane double by finishing as the best team in the league in both eFG% and opponent eFG%.
This year, Golden State leagues the league in offensive eFG% at a number very close to 2014-15 but is tied for second with Chicago on the defensive side of the coin. Still remarkable.
Turnovers (25%)– Turnover Percentage measures how many times a team turns the ball over for every 100 possessions.
Last season, Golden State turned around everyone’s favorite Achilles’ heel and finished the season in the top half at 14th. They also forced the seventh-most turnovers which is awfully impressive when you combine it with how badly opponents shot against them.
This season, the Warriors did not have the turnover-heavy start and sit in a tie for eighth. They are slightly behind last season in forcing turnovers in a tie with Denver for ninth. Again, top ten in both offensive and defensive measures.
Rebounding (20%)– Rebounding uses Offensive Rebound Percentage which works because reversing it to opponent OREB% is the flipped version of Defensive Rebound Percentage.
Last year, offensive rebounding was not necessarily a priority and the Dubs finished 21st in ORB%. They did slightly better on the defensive glass, finishing 18th.
This year, the emergence of Festus Ezeli has turned the Warriors into a substantially better offensive rebounding team and they are currently tied for tenth in the league. They are one spot down from 2014-15 in defensive boards which is actually impressive since Andrew Bogut was a top-15 defensive rebounder last season. Look for that to improve if the front line can stay healthy.
Free Throws (15%)– The measure here is Free Throw Attempt Rate– how many free throws a team tries per shot from the field. It does not account for success at all, which makes some sense because just getting to the line has plenty of benefits that can get distorted by incorporating how many a team makes.
Last season, the Warriors had their weakness here, finishing fifth from the bottom in offensive FTA rate and in the bottom half (19th) in opponent FTA rate.
This season, the Dubs still are not getting to the line (24th) and are barely in the bottom half (16th) in opponent FTA rate.
This season looks substantially like last year in terms of the Four Factors with a nice improvement on the boards. Considering how 2014-15 turned out in the regular season and playoffs, that should be seen as great news.
Festus Ezeli (31, left) blocks the shot of Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32, right) during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The Week to Come:
Definitely the toughest week of the season so far on paper. After two days off, the Warriors face the Raptors at Oracle then travel to LA where the Clippers will have had four days off.
After the game at Staples, Golden State returns home to take on the Bulls the next night where Chicago will have a one-day rest advantage. The Warriors end the week on the road again against a Denver team that has looked feistier since the Dubs worked them at Oracle early in the month.
Even though 3-1 is probably the most likely outcome for the week, I will go with 4-0 since it proves hard to pick against a team that just keeps winning.