May 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) congratulates center Andrew Bogut (12) and forward Draymond Green (23) during a timeout against the Memphis Grizzlies during the third quarter in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 101-86. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
After two very different games, part of the challenge in assessing this series is evaluating what aspects from each can be repeated.
In my eyes, the defense we saw from Memphis in Game Two should be closer to the expectation for the rest of the series. The Grizzlies are one of a very small number of teams who have quality defenders at all three perimeter positions and they step it up because those guys can switch so effectively when necessary. In those circumstances, the Warriors still have an advantage because that Memphis perimeter group only contains one player who can break down their defense (Mike Conley) and they still do not threaten from beyond the arc.
-== 5 Reasons Why the Warriors Will Beat the Grizzlies ==-
Against a capable defensive opponent, Memphis’ offense gets oxygen from the stops they make. Golden State’s turnovers did them no favors in Game Two but the Grizzlies only scored four more points with four more Warriors TO’s. However, there are more ways to change possession than turnovers and bad shot attempts can be devastating as well. We saw this in the form of an eight point increase in Memphis fast break points on Tuesday. Coach Kerr has done an excellent job this season of instilling the importance of working for better shots and valuing each possession but we saw neither in Game Two. Failing to do so again makes winning even harder, especially in a fired-up Grindhouse.
May 5, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Assuming Mike Conley can stay on the court, Coach Kerr should also consider making an adjustment that Mark Jackson never made against the Clippers last year. Like LA, Memphis has a starting point guard that does an excellent job on Stephen Curry and backups that have a ton of trouble. That reality coupled with a defensively-capable backup in Shaun Livingston provides an opportunity to maximize success by doing everything in their power to make sure Stephen Curry is on the court every relevant minute Mike Conley is off it. Memphis could slide Courtney Lee or Tony Allen over to the MVP but doing so forces a PG onto someone like Klay, providing another huge exploitable opportunity. Coach Joerger could certainly adjust in turn but it can be harder to mess with the rest of a player returning from an injury that kept him in bed for a week. An earlier than usual swap of Livingston for Curry allows for more switching defensively and reduces the time of the Livingston/Iguodala pairing that provides too little spacing against a savvy opponent.
We are far more likely to see more from the other adjustment: forcing Zach Randolph to live in pick and rolls. Z-Bo does many things well on a basketball court but defending PNR’s is not one of them. To make matters worse for him, Golden State typically plays power forwards with credible jump shots, opening up more offensive avenues. As Zach Lowe pointed out, Memphis adjusted by putting Marc Gasol on Draymond for stretches which helps but also takes their best rim protector out of the paint. Playing four or even five out takes an elite defensive team out of their element in a way that does not give them an effective counter as long as the Warriors can defend the interior on the other end. This may actually work even better in stretches where they sit one of the two because Kosta Koufos has trouble defending in space as well.
One thing to remember is that the core understanding of the series has not changed beyond knowing that Conley came back more quickly and effectively than expected. At full strength, the Grizzlies are a great team deserving of a place among the elite teams in the Western Conference and league as a whole. That said, their offensive limitations are hard to correct in the short term and a Warriors team that avoids giving them easier looks through bad misses and turnovers should be able to pull out a majority of the remaining games. As I told Jordan last night on the podcast, the question now is whether this team can win a 90-85 game against a quality opponent. I thought so before the series and still do now, though it will be a tougher fight.