May 5, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30, top) shoots a layup against Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) during the third quarter in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Grizzlies defeated the Warriors 97-90. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The fact that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit gets a fair amount of attention but the track record for teams down 3-1 is not substantially better. Only eight teams have ever won a series needing to win the final three games.
-== 7 Reasons Why The Warriors Should Re-Sign Draymond Green ==-
I put this at the front to provide a clearer view of the stakes in Game Four. While the Warriors, a team that won more than four-fifths of their games this season, possess the talent to put themselves in that small group, doing so would be a remarkable achievement.
May 9, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
That aside, Golden State made a few nice adjustments that they can build on and still have not had one of their trademark hot shooting nights. The most encouraging development from their perspective in Saturday’s game was Klay Thompson spending more time guarding Mike Conley. Klay did a nice job with that tough assignment and swapping the assignments helped the Warriors in transition because Memphis had to stick with these cross-matches for some possessions. While some disagree for fair reasons, I would like to see Kerr go one step further and put Stephen Curry on Tony Allen for stretches. Steph has a propensity and willingness to be an active help defender when off the ball which works some of the time but can yield some open looks for his cover. We saw Courtney Lee nail a backbreaking three in the fourth quarter on a play where Curry wanted to go over and help on Zach Randolph but ended up neither changing Z-Bo’s look nor staying on his man. That can happen with strong help and is part of the reason why putting the MVP on Tony Allen could mitigate some of the worst outcomes- leaving Allen open could lead to some buckets but they would be a more acceptable outcome than wide-open shots for Lee or Conley.
The Warriors’ bigs also need to do a better job for this team to win a tough road game. Bogut and Green did excellent work defensively this season- I had them #1 and #3 on my (non-existent) Defensive Player of the Year ballot for a reason. While Memphis’ combination of Z-Bo and Marc Gasol have the size to give them problems, making those two work should be enough considering their lack of scoring on the perimeter. Doubling more often and earlier was not something this team needed to do much during the regular season but the Grizzlies are not most teams.
Memphis’ dominant size also opens up the possibility of going small early in the game rather than as a desperation move that has worked pretty well late. A Golden State team more willing to double does not need to commit to having a post defender like Bogut on the floor as much. There is a logic that may seem counterintuitive at first but comes around in a variety of fields: the less likely you are to beat the competition doing things the “normal” way, the more likely you are to break convention. In fact, Coach Kerr should consider shifting Bogut to anchor the second unit defense for stretches, especially since Iguodala serves as the fifth man on those Draymond at Center units.
May 9, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
None of these concepts are sure bets and the Warriors certainly could beat the Grizzlies without them but part of what makes basketball fun is that teams can experiment within a single game without committing to it for any longer than that. It is not baseball where a pulled player cannot return or hockey where the ripple effects of shifting lines are much greater. The key players on Golden State are ready to play heavy minutes and these lineups have spent time on the floor together for the most part.
One other key aspect to mention: while less clear than in some other series (*cough* Rockets *cough*), the Grizzlies have outworked the Warriors so far. Playing smarter would yield some major benefits for Golden State as well but their talent advantage is not large enough to survive that with any consistency. Fortunately for the Dubs, that can change tonight.
Adam Lauridsen of the Fast Break blog asked last night if Game Four is the most important Warriors game in the last 35 years and the answer is a clear and unambiguous yes. Fortunately, we can expect that to change at least a few times in upcoming seasons and potentially in the next few weeks. The playoffs test all teams and the Warriors were never going to be an exception to that rule.