The Warriors and Blazers will face off in the playoffs for the first time in either franchise’s history on Sunday afternoon in Oakland. Golden State will be without the services of presumptive back-to-back MVP Stephen Curry for at least Game 1, while Portland will be on a short turnaround, less than 48 hours after defeating the LA Clippers in a thrilling, combative Game 6. For the Warriors, a chance at back-to-back championships is at stake, while for the Blazers, well, they were never supposed to be here in the first place.
Here are 10 thoughts on the second round matchup:
1. The dominating question in the Warriors-Blazers series: When will Stephen Curry play, and how effective will he be when he does? Steve Kerr hasn’t ruled him out from playing in Game 2, and Steph himself is optimistic for an early return. League average, low-grade MCL sprains required 15 days of recovery, which would put the MVP back on May 10(ish), in time for Game 5. But regardless, when Steph makes it back might have less importance on this series than how Steph looks when he’s out there. Because so much of the MVP’s game is predicated on left-right body movements, side steps, and step-back jumpers (which requires the legs to generate the bulk of the power), any ill effect from a limited knee could severely hamper Curry’s effectiveness.
Even as a decoy, a less-than-full-power Curry would do wonders for the Warriors offense because the Dubs aren’t just missing his 30 points per game, they’re also missing all the open looks his gravity on offense generates for his teammates. It should come as no surprise that Harrison Barnes’ lackluster offensive Round 1 came when Steph was out. Also to note: when Curry is on the court, the other team is frequently taking the ball out of the basket on his makes, which limits their number of transition opportunities and gives the Dubs’ defense time to set up in the half-court.
2. How will the Warriors defend Damian Lillard in the pick and roll? In the Clippers series, Doc Rivers tried trapping Lillard hard with a big man, but that opened up the floor for Mason Plumlee to make like Draymond-lite on 4-on-3 situations and drop 19 assists in Games 3 and 4. In Game 6, LA put a single defender on Dame, which resulted in the Oakland native netting 28 points, albeit on 9-of-21 shooting. I’d look for the Warriors to single cover Lillard while shading a second defender his way. With Livingston, Klay, and Andre Iguodala, the Dubs have great length to cover Dame, and should any one of them get broken down at the top, the Warriors could send Dray or HB to help and dare Aminu and Harkless to hit an open jumper. Damian got a lot of credit for lifting his fifth-seeded team to Round 2 (and deservedly so), but lest we forget, he shot only 37% on 115 shots against a Clippers team that was without Chris Paul’s defense for 2.5 games. The Warriors are a significantly better defensive team than LA, even when fully healthy.
3. The shooting-guard position is back! During the late ’00s and early 2010s, the NBA’s once premiere position was looking a little like a zombie wasteland. With Kobe and Wade inching out of their primes and Harden and Klay yet to ascend to the throne, there was a dearth of talent in the position that Michael Jordan made glamorous. But fast forward to 2016, and the 2-guard is again in the spotlight with Klay, Harden, Jimmy Butler when his teammates aren’t hating him, young Devin Booker, Demar Derozan, and CJ McCollum lighting up the box scores and putting the “shooting” back in shooting-guard. I love watching CJ’s herky-jerky hesitation-heavy drive-in-a-squiggly-line game. (Not to mention dude is legit funny).
4. If the Blazers continue to go with a single-big lineup, the Warrior’s big man minutes will be scarce, with Draymond likely to play extended time at the five. So in the few minutes Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli are on the floor, they will have to be effective — immediately. Bogut will need to close off driving lanes with smart positioning and get the offense a few easy scores off pinpoint passes. Festus will have to channel some of that extra energy he had in Round 1 into something more productive this time, like chasing down Lillard and McCollum for blocks off pick-and-roll actions.
5. Will Playoff Harrison Barnes (the scorer) show up? The Dubs got away with getting little offensive contribution from HB in Round 1, but they’ll need more than 8.4 points on 29% shooting this time against a high-octane Blazers squad. Of course, the versatile Barnes fills in a lot of the gaps in the Warriors game (rebounding, defending the 4, leading the second unit) but if this series turns into a track meet with Dame and CJ scoring in bunches, the Warriors will need to counter with some HB offensive firepower.
6. Where will Portland hide Lillard? They’re not putting him on Klay and hoping he makes it through a maze of screens to thwart a 3-bomb from 25 feet. Put him on Livingston and Terry Stotts might as well put “Livingston with a turnaround J” on repeat. HB will punish him down low too. Portland will have to make a tough choice on what it can live with giving up.
7. The Warriors have been great taking care of the ball sans Steph. In the third quarter of Game 4 versus Houston (before the subs were sent in for fourth quarter garbage time) and the closeout game of the series, the Dubs committed a total of 11 turnovers. The team knows the margin for error is far lower with Curry out of the lineup and are thus, more cautious with the ball, less prone to attempt risky home run passes.
8. I can’t even hate on the Clippers or Austin Rivers any more, not after that gutsy performance in Game 6 up in Portland. Did you see the size of Rivers’ shiner? He looked like the Hunchback of Notre Dame out there. I once lost a contact during a pickup game and had to go the rest of the way blurry in one eye; it was the miserablest I’ve ever played. Rivers has earned the privilege of never being called “the coach’s son” in this space again. (By the way, that Clippers performance should cast an even greater light on how dismal the Rockets’ Round 1 “effort” was).
9. If you’re betting that the Blazers will win this series, you’re betting that Damian and CJ go ballistic at least twice each. You’re also assuming that Harkless and Aminu will be able to keep the Warriors defense honest by hitting shots at a decent clip. You’re hoping that if the team D can keep Klay from catch-and-shoot situations, instead frustrating him into taking lower-percentage off-balanced, off-the-dribble attempts, the Warriors will have trouble scoring. And if Steph’s knee issue severely limits his effectiveness, then watch out: the Blazers will get to see old friend LaMarcus Aldridge in the Western Conference Finals.
10. If you’re betting that the Warriors will win, you’re betting that home court matters. And you’re betting that the Warriors will continue to play team ball and display the all-inclusive pass-heavy offense they used to win 73 games in the regular season. You’re also betting that Draymond and Klay will shine in the spotlight, hitting big shots, making big defensive stands. And without Curry, the role players — Livingston, Iguodala, Bogut, Clark, Rush, Mo — will step up and reward the coaching staff for showing confidence in them all season by playing up to their potential and limiting their mistakes. And you’re confident that if Curry does return, even if limited, he will give the Warriors more than they need, lifting his squad past an over-achieving Portland team and careening the Dubs into a WCF matchup versus the Spurs or Thunder … what we’ve been waiting for all season.