May 9, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
It’s midnight the night before the game, and I can’t sleep. Usually sleepless nights derive from something you control: you’re taking the SAT the next morning, or you’re giving the keynote presentation at work tomorrow. Sports fandom brings all the passion of those nerve-racking events, but none of the control. In this sense, sleepless nights induced by sports fandom are a worse version of something already bad – kind of like being stuck in traffic while you need to go to the bathroom. You know the feeling.
-== 7 Reasons Why The Warriors Should Re-Sign Draymond Green ==-
Why so sleepless? Today at 6:30PM in Memphis, Tennessee is merely the biggest game in the history of my Warriors fandom, and probably yours too. To be specific, I believe tonight’s game is the biggest Warriors game since Game 7 of the 1976 Western Conference Finals (the season after Rick Barry’s Warriors won the title). Why is this bigger than last year’s Game 7 vs. the Clippers, or Game 6 vs. the Spurs in 2013? Because this year’s team can win a championship. Those past series were about franchise progress; this series is about winning a ring this season.
May 9, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
The Warriors’ Game 1 thrashing of Memphis was eight days ago – or as it’s known in Game of Thrones time, three major characters’ deaths ago. At that point it appeared the Grizzlies were going to continue to be the playoff basketball version of Henry Clay in the Presidential elections from 1824 to 1844: they were always going to be in the running, but they were never going to win. Yet, in the the eight days since, the story of the Warriors evolved from “are you taking the Warriors or the field?” to “the most critical Warriors game in almost four decades”. All of this for good reason.
The Splash Brothers were outplayed by a point guard with a broken face and a wing who literately can’t shoot further than 10 feet from the basket. Barbosa and Ezeli destroyed all equity they built up during the Pelicans series. Over the past two games Barbosa’s played more than Livingston, but his plus-minus has been almost 12 points below Livingston’s net neutral. Meanwhile, in 8 minutes played in game three, Ezeli was -9 in plus-minus. In related news, Mo Buckets is now injured, which could demand more of Festus. Finally, Memphis’ big to small pick-and-roll has obliterated the Warriors’ biggest defensive strength: switching practically every screen on defense.
The light at the end of the tunnel seems to be darkening from the golden hue it maintained all season. Yet, I still believe in these Warriors. This doesn’t mean I’m not terrified, I am. But, I’m also confident. In school they teach you to keep things to three bullet points, but school doesn’t understand the paramount importance of tonight’s game. These are the reasons I’m confident:
- In Games 2 and 3, the Warriors played two of their worst games of the season. Yet, in Game 2 the Warriors were within 7 points with 10 minutes left, and in Game 3 the Warriors were within 4 points with 3:15 left. The Warriors don’t need to re-enter the world-beating mode they occupied for so much of the year, they just need to be marginally better.
- Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger isn’t some mastermind tactician on a different level of basketball intellect than Steve Kerr. After last season the Grizzlies thought low enough of Joerger to allow him to interview with the Minnesota Timberwolves. I expect Kerr to win the battle of the minds tonight.
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May 5, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Harrison Barnes has entered playoff mode HB. This gives the Warriors a definitive advantage at small forward vs. the Grizzlies over perennial fanbase disappointment Jeff Green.
- In the 4th quarter of Game 3, the Warriors discovered the effectiveness of doubling down on ZBo and Gasol post-ups. Without a double, ZBo pivots more than a politician and eventually shakes his man, while Gasol can shoot simply over his defender. But, with a double (or even with a guard swiping at the ball like Iguodala does so well), Memphis’ dearth of outside shooting becomes fatally exposed. This regular season the Grizzlies were second to last in threes attempted, and shot the eighth worst three point percentage in the league.
- According to SportVU data, the Warriors shot 34% on uncontested jumpers in Game 3. Don’t expect that to happen again.
- Finally, Steph Curry can handle this. This isn’t the first time Curry’s been double-teamed on high pick-and-rolls – he can handle it. This isn’t the first time a gigantic burden has been placed on Curry’s back – he can handle it. Steph Curry isn’t soft; you don’t dominate the NBA as a 6’3” point guard by playing soft. Steph can not only handle this, he can control tonight’s game.
For the first 87 games of the season, this Warriors team played at an all-time great level. During the regular season the Warriors won in the Grindhouse. Not only did they win in Memphis, but they won by 23 points. We’re not in a crisis. The Warriors are a win away from being back on serve. The 48 minutes that separate the Warriors from regaining control will be an emotional roller-coaster of, Memphis post-ups that develop slower than a DMV line, Warriors three-pointers that make grown men put on their “three goggles”, and referees ignoring the fact that Memphis defenders spend more time holding some part of Steph Curry than actually defending him.
Sometimes in sports fandom there comes a game so consuming in its importance, that it renders the rest of your day inefficient because you can only focus on the game. For me, and for the rest of Dub Nation, today is one of those days.
I still believe. We still believe.
A special thanks to Justin Parker for his late night consultation on the Warriors’ positives going into tonight’s game. You were just as clutch as Curry’s going to be tonight.