It’s the go-to line of NBA fans stuck in the past: “jump-shooting teams can’t win championships”. You’ve heard it from TNT’s Inside the NBA, bitter Lakers fans, and old-timers dreaming of Kareem’s “sky hook”. To be blunt, that ideology is outdated. It’s now a myth, and here’s why.
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Evolution. Outside of free samples at Costco or achieving the perfect milk to cereal ratio, there may be nothing greater in this world than evolution. From earth itself (sorry Pangaea), to Chipotle reinventing fast food (we’re not sorry McDonalds), the world’s ever changing. Basketball’s no exception. In the modern NBA jump-shooting teams can not only win, they can win big. This is not merely the story of our world-beating Golden State Warriors, it’s the story of basketball universe we so dearly love. So, listen up Charles Barkley, Byron Scott, and every basketball fan stuck in the 90s -like the rest of the world, basketball’s evolving.
Deconstructing evolving trends isn’t always the easiest endeavor so I’m going to break this up into three sections: the results of rule changes, the facts of recent seasons, and the final piece to this shooting puzzle.
Rewriting the Rules -Enhancing Entertainment has Enhanced Shooting
Unlike FIFA, the NBA’s continually attempting to better the game -to make it more entertaining. This has culminated in three major rules changes, each of which increased the value of the jump-shot. You’ll notice that these aren’t “new” rules. Perhaps you’ll ask, “why are jump-shooting teams uniquely positioned to win now when the rules they’re exploiting aren’t new”? My response, the NBA’s a small world. It’s 30 GMs and 30 coaches dictating how the game’s played. Couple that small group of influencers with the fact that change, unless you’re a tech company, is synonymous with words like “gradual” and this was justifiably a multi-decade progression. Okay, to those rule changes…
- 1981/82: weak side defenders may not stay in the lane (the key) for longer than three seconds. This was made even more strict during the 2001/02 season.
- 1994/95: hand-checking is eliminated from the end line of the backcourt to the opposite foul line.
Opening the lane, empowering motion offense, and most importantly creating a shot of 50% higher value than the regular bucket, basketball slowly transformed from five games of 1 on 1 to one game of 5 on 5. A 5 on 5 style conducive to spacing and concurrently shooting.
Recent Seasons -Successful teams have been “Shooting Teams”
Now that I’ve made you endure the drudgery of rule changes, let’s get to something more exciting: proving that jump-shooting teams have indeed won in recent years.
While there were isolated examples throughout the early 2,000s -like the 04/05 LA Lakers who reached the NBA Finals shooting the third most threes in the league-, the 2009/10 Orlando Magic officially commenced the era of jump-shooting barrages correlating to winning teams. That Finals reaching Magic squad led the NBA with 27 threes attempted per game -equal to the amount the Warriors are shooting this year.
Subsequently, the movement exploded like American soccer fandom during the World Cup. The 2011 champion Dallas Cubans (*Mavericks) were 5th in threes attempted per game. The genius that is the San Antonio Spurs were 7th and 8th the following two seasons, and Lebron’s peak Miami team (2012/13) was 6th. Heck, Spurs shooting guard Danny Green practically won the 2013 Finals MVP because he could simply shoot threes better than anyone else.
I want to spotlight the Spurs -argubaly the NBA’s most successful franchise throughout the 21st century. During the 2003/04 season the Spurs earned 15.6% of their points from threes. By the 2011/12 season 24.8% of the Spurs’ points derived from the land of plenty. It is this dichotomy which illustrates the movement. Both those Spurs teams (03/04 and 11/12) were one season away from winning a title -they were both legitimately good. The Spurs realized the NBA landscape was changing. To contend in 2011/12 they couldn’t play the way they had in the early 2,000s -they evolved.
Better yet, show me the team that’s winning games from the low-post. Outside of the Memphis “We the exception!” Grizzlies, there aren’t any.
Shooting teams winning isn’t new to to this season’s Warriors, Rockets, or Hawks. This has been an integral part of the NBA’s best for the last five seasons. Sure, this isn’t decades of history, but I prefer the truth the latest data provides over the breadth decades of data incorrectly provide. For some this might be an inconvenient truth they’re attempting to break down in their mind; that is, until they witness the stunning evidence from this season.
The Final Step: What Not to Shoot
The final piece to this shooting puzzle is something I envision as an ESPN 30 for 30 commercial… “What if I told you, the best shooters simply know when not to shoot?”.
Knowing where not to shoot. The best shooting teams have it down to a science. This is perhaps the greatest achievement between the marriage of motion capture technology and basketball analytics. Take a look…
This season the top five teams in three-pointers attempted per game are almost identical to a list of title contenders: the Rockets, Cavaliers, Trail Blazers, Warriors, and Clippers (Atlanta’s 6th). 
Meanwhile, the the top five teams in mid-range jumpers (in between the lane and the three-point line) attempted per game reads like the NBA Draft lottery plus one team with an offense so inefficient they might fire their coach after making the playoffs: the Lakers, Knicks, Hornets, Timberwolves, and Wizards.
This is a league where the differentiating factor is efficiency. As Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry puts it, “being slightly inefficient within an extremely efficient area, it turns out, is better than being efficient in an inefficient area”. That efficient area he’s referring to, the three-point line. That inefficient area, mid-range jumpers. An area that’s efficiency on steroids is the corner three-pointer. Unsurprisingly the power users of that shot just so happen to be those contenders I mentioned earlier. This is about more than simply chucking threes, this is about the discipline and understanding that the long two is basketball’s worst shot
There’s an infinite number of ways to illustrate this truth: smart shooting wins.
Yes, history is important in understanding the future, but so is understanding the evolution of the present. Remember, society initially rejected, antibiotics, that the world is round, and even the Harry Potter series (turned down by 12 publishers)! So, Charles Barkley, Byron Scott, and friends of the triangle offense, it’s okay to get it wrong at first. But, to continue to reject the new NBA would be basketball’s version of Indiana governor Mike Pence rejecting the rights of gay Hoosiers -an outdated mindset only yielding negative results.
For Warriors fans this new era brings good news. Rule changes have made it possible. Recent teams have demonstrated it possible. And most importantly, the Warriors have proved that not only are they great shooters but they’re smart shooters. This is the new NBA and the Warriors are the model franchise. This jump-shooting team can win the title.
Good write up, as I am sick of Barkley and Kenny Smith continually saying that the Warriors just won’t win playoff series being a jump shooting team. This game is changing from the days of guys like Barkley and Rodman being thugs under the basket, to stretch 4’s who can shoot the three, and that bothers Barkley because he does not approve of this type of game because that just wasn’t how he played. Sorry Charley, a change for the better.