The Unspoken Question: Is Andre Iguodala Really That Valuable?

By: Jared Williams

As the Warriors’ fan base grows by the splash, new members to Dub Nation will arrive at a question which has recently become a right of passage in Warriors fandom: is Andre Iguodala really that good? If Steph Curry is the antithesis of what basketball stars are supposed to look like, Iguodala is the model. Lanky yet light footed, bouncy yet fundamentally sound, visually Iguodala is, as my Dad likes to say, “our version of Lebron”. Yet, Iguodala’s value is uncommonly challenging to evaluate. Defensively, the man’s a wizard. Offensively, his hesitancy to shoot or you know, do anything that could result in him at the free throw line is impossible to miss. Iguodala’s true worth is an enigma, a mystery constantly fueling the fire of Warriors debates -a player whose truth resists simplicity.

Let’s take a step back for a moment. In this era of advanced statistics it’s simply ignorant to assess a player without utilizing advanced metrics. Yet, it’s equally ignorant to apply those numbers without clarifying their meaning. As such, with each article I author I’ll attempt to illuminate the meaning behind any advanced analytics I employ.

For Iguodala (or “Iggy”), we’ll focus on Win Shares (WS). WS is simple; it’s the estimated number of wins contributed by a player. Why use WS as the statistic of choice? In short, it has been calculated for a long time thus enhancing its comparability, it accounts for defense (especially integral when analyzing Iguodala), and it has a low average error (for fellow analytics nerds, WS’s average error is half of EWA’s).

In using WS, it becomes glaringly obvious that the Warriors signed Iguodala right when his prime ended (2013). From the 2005/06 season through the 2012/13 season, Iguodala’s average WS was 7.54. To contextualize this, 7.54 would have been good for 37th in the entire NBA last season -ahead of LaMarcus Aldridge, Uncle Drew (Kyrie Irving), the younger Splash Brother, and current MVP candidate Marc Gasol. For 8 seasons Iggy was elite, and the Warriors’ signing of his was justifiable. Not to mention he gave the Warriors an up-close view of his ability in the 2013 playoffs, when Iguodala proved to be the only Nuggets player capable of posing a threat to that young Warriors team.

The Warriors surely expected some decline in Iguodala’s game when they signed him -unless you’re name’s Kyle Korver, NBA players simply don’t get better in their 30s- but offensively the drop-off has been drastic. How drastic? Here are Iggy’s stats for this season…

• A career low in points per 100 possessions. I’m using “per 100 possessions” because Iguodala’s playing less and thus it would be unreasonable to compare using points per game.
• His assists per 100 possessions haven’t been this low since his sophomore year in the league.
• A free throw percentage lower than Shaq’s career regular season average.
• A career low in Offensive Win Shares (OFS).
  *OFS = the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense.

Much of this derives from Iguodala becoming a spot up shooter on offense. This season, 41.6% of his shots are three-pointers -a career high- and he’s on pace for a career low in shots attempted within 3 feet of the basket.

Iguodala’s offensive regression is undeniable and as such, Iguodala’s contract -the 3rd highest on the league’s best team- comes into question. Yet, as anemic as his offense has become, come playoff time I believe Iggy will be the Warriors’ most valuable bench player. In turn, that $12.29 million dollar salary will prove worth its seemingly unjustified cost. In Iguodala’s contract the Warriors aren’t paying for offense, they’re essentially paying for defense and intangibles. The defense is undeniably there…

• For NBA players who’ve played more than 30 games, Iguodala’s 6th in Defensive Rating at 95.2.
  *Defensive Rating = the number of points per 100 possessions allowed with a given player on the court
• In “Clutch Time”, Iguodala’s Defensive Rating gets even better, reaching 75.2.
  *Clutch time = the last 5 minutes of a game with the score within 5 points

In the death-match that’s the impending Western Conference Playoffs, Iguodala’s one-on-one defensive ability is a skill in high demand. In case your skeptical, I present a short list of perimeter scorers the Warriors could have to guard in the playoffs: Durant, Lillard, Conley, Westbrook, Harden, and Gregg Popovich & Friends. In the playoffs when the pace slows and late game isolations decide series, Iggy’s one-on-one defense is a necessity.

Nevertheless, Iguodala’s value goes one final step further, his intangibles – specifically, communication and leadership. Often times a synonym for “paying extra for intangibles” is “a bad contract”, but Iguodala’s case is an exception because of the Warriors’ championship opportunity.

Intangibles are a luxury only worth paying for if you’ve got a shot at a championship. To use one final stat, according to pioneering basketball statistician John Hollinger’s Playoff Odds, the Warriors currently possess a 53.4% likelihood of winning the NBA Title (seriously).

I’d call that a shot, and therefore I’d unequivocally call a defensive maestro and intangible dream, a worthy and valuable investment.