There’s only one game remaining in the group stage of men’s basketball at the Rio Olympics, and Team USA still isn’t sure which team they’ll play in their first knockout game on Wednesday.
Team USA went undefeated in Group A to earn the top seed, and they’ll play the 4th seed coming out of Group B.
Each group advances 4 teams. In Group A, Team Venezuela and Team China failed to advance to the knockout round.
Team USA is the top seed, Team Australia is the 2nd seed, Team France is the 3rd seed, and Team Serbia is the 4th seed.
A team gets a point even for losing a game, and right now, Team Lithuania is tied with Team Brazil for the 3rd seed in Group B.
Team Lithuania is going to automatically get a point for playing Team Croatia later tonight in the final game of Group B.
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— U.S. Olympic Team (@TeamUSA) August 15, 2016
Team Lithuania is guaranteed to move on to the knockout round because of that. There’s still a few variables remaining, though.
Two points are earned for a win, while one point is earned for a loss. Team Croatia can finish with as many as 8 points, and as few as 7 points.
Team Lithuania can finish with as much as 9 points, and as few as 8 points. Unfortunately for the host country, there’s no scenario where they’d end up advancing at this point.
If Team Lithuania wins, then Team Lithuania secures the top seed in Group B. Team Spain gets the 2nd seed based on their win against Team Argentina, even though the two squads are tied in the standings. Team Argentina would get the 3rd seed.
Team Croatia would then get the 4th seed based on their win over Team Brazil, even though the two squads would be tied in points.
If Team Lithuania loses, then there’ll be a 4-way tie in Group B which will be separated by point differential.
In that scenario, the 4 teams tied are Team Spain, Team Argentina, Team Lithuania, and Team Croatia.
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— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) August 15, 2016
We know what 4 teams are advancing out of Group B, but we don’t know what order they’ll be seeded in as of now.
Team Nigeria and Team Brazil are not going to be advancing to the knockout rounds out of Group B.
If Team Lithuania does lose tonight, based on point differentials, we can estimate what the seeding may look like.
Team Spain will get the top seed. If Team Croatia wins by less than 40 points over Team Lithuania, then Team Argentina would get the 2nd seed.
Team Croatia would then get the 3rd seed, and Team Lithuania would settle into the 4th seed.
Team Lithuania can finish as high as the 1st seed and as low as the 4th, depending on if they win tonight.
So Team USA has two options available: they’ll play Team Croatia on Wednesday if Team Lithuania wins tonight, or they’ll play Team Lithuania on Wednesday if Team Croatia wins tonight.