Tip Off: 6:00 PM (PST)
Projected Starters
Houston Golden State
PG – Kyle Lowry Stephen Curry
SG – Kevin Martin Monta Ellis
SF – Chandler Parsons Dorell Wright
PF – Luis Scola David Lee
C – Samuel Dalembert Andris Biedrins
Scope the opposition: Get your Rockets at Red 94.
Preview: Fresh off a victory against the Denver Nuggets on the road, the Golden State Warriors (9-14) will host the Houston Rockets (16-11) tonight at Oracle Arena. Houston was victorious Friday night in Phoenix and will be looking to improve on their 6-8 road record.
Kevin McHale’s unit sports a 102.3 offensive rating (9th in the NBA) and converts 45.3 percent of their shots from the field (10th in the league). The Rockets are led by one of the best young point guards in the league in Kyle Lowry, whose decision making this season has been a big reason for Houston’s success.
Lowry understands his players’ strengths and weaknesses and thus gets them the ball in areas where they can do damage with it. For instance, Kevin Martin does a good job of coming off screens and catching the ball on the move and going to the basket; hence Lowry will try to hit him on the move so that he can get a high percentage shot in the paint.
Mind you, Martin is a heady player that understands defenses but does not always properly anticipate the movements of his teammates. The end result is that if Martin comes off a screen and sees a double team, he will try to hit his screener with a pass but the big man may be on the move or stationary, which may result in turnovers (side note: Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton might be the best at hitting their screeners out of a double team). Consequently, Lowry may decide not to go to Martin or simply throw the ball just slightly behind him to avoid him getting trapped.
Nonetheless, when the Rockets execute their offense and keep the ball moving, they are quite difficult to stop. As previously covered, Martin is a good offensive option because of his movement off the ball but also because he can convert shots out on the perimeter.
In addition, the Rockets have a very good low post option in Luis Scola. The Argentine has the ability to literally make opposing big men dance with his impressive footwork as well as his dexterity with the ball that allows him to create shots around the basket reminiscent of Vlade Divac.
Between Martin and Scola, Houston has two good scoring options, but they also have Kyle Lowry that doubles as their floor general and third leading scorer. The Villanova product has the ability to break down defenders thanks to his ball handling but he is also a tough and strong physical guard that keeps opposing guards on their heels thanks to his speed and strength. These physical tools coupled with his relentless attitude make him a tough cover as well as a fierce rebounder from the point guard position.
Given those three scoring options as well as their 12.0 offensive rebounds per game, Houston scores 42 points in the paint per game (ninth in the association).
Worth noting: they have some terrific athletes in Chandler Parsons and Courtney Lee that can get out on the break and posterize opponents or simply get some great second chance opportunities.
On the other side of the ball, the Houston Rockets have a 99.4 defensive rating (14th in the NBA) and allow 45 percent field goal shooting (15th in the league) on the season. Oddly enough, when watching the Rockets on defense, they look far worse than their numbers suggest.
Their pick-and-roll defense is quite unimpressive. At times, it seems as though both the ball handler and screener are open as a result of the action, which clearly does not bode well for Houston. Mind you, it comes down to fooling them on this front though.
Indeed, with a steady dose of pick-and-rolls, the Rockets can rotate to the paint and cover players at the rim, especially with Dalembert on the roster that can thwart shot attempts. Where things get tricky for Houston is when teams alternate between pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops.
The Rockets players get confused between retreating to the paint or stretching out their defense to cover shooters; especially if the player at the power forward position is a threat from 3-point range.
This explains why Houston surrenders 45.9 points in the paint per game (28th in the association) on the year.
The backcourt battle should be an intriguing one as Curry will get matched up against Lowry while Ellis will go head-to-head with Martin. One would have to think that Biedrins will get himself into foul trouble since he routinely does, but that would be the perfect situation for the Dubs to counter the Rockets and downsize by inserting Klay Thompson at small forward and playing Dorell Wright at power forward as long as he is able to keep Scola off the boards.
Having Wright play as a stretch 4 should open up driving lanes for the Dubs and also allow them to get multiple open shots as a result of the pick-and-roll.
Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected].