In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x San Antonio Spurs preview

By: J.M.Poulard

After a tough loss on Saturday night at the hands of the Los Angeles Clippers, the Golden State Warriors (19-24) will host the San Antonio Spurs (37-7) tonight. The Spurs have defeated the Warriors twice this season already – by double figures no less— but the home team will be looking for a different outcome.

On offense, the Spurs are scoring 103.9 points per game (fifth in the NBA) on 46.8% field goal shooting (fifth in the league). The impressive thing about this San Antonio team is that other than their 39.1% three point shooting (second best in the association), they do not do anything that truly stands out on offense. Instead, they just rely on doing everything well, and it makes them an efficient offense.

For instance, San Antonio no longer runs the offense through Tim Duncan, instead they rely on flying down the court after their opponents make or miss shots to get easy opportunities. Tony Parker’s speed helps him get out in transition and beat out defenders, thus leading to 15.6 fast break points (fourth best in the NBA). Mind you, not every basket comes from their transition; so once they get into their half court offense, they run a lot of sets to get their perimeter players (Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson) the ball with some space to create. Usually they are able to break down their defenders for a score.

Do not be fooled into thinking that the Spurs are an isolation team like the Atlanta Hawks though. Far from it. They run a lot of pick and rolls which affords them a plethora of short opportunities from different spots on the floor. Indeed, the Spurs do a great job of finding the next open player as the defense tries to rotate to the next open guy. The result is a good passing team as evidenced by their 23.1 assists per game (fourth in the NBA) but also a team that gets a variety of shot opportunities. Have a look at the graphic below that was compiled with the help of data collected by Hoopdata:

As you can see, Gregg Popovich’s group does a great job mixing up the spots on the floor from which they shoot. However, the graphic does illustrate that the Spurs do not favor shooting long two point shots (16 to 23 feet). Instead, they prefer to shoot them close to the basket or simply from three point range. Let’s see how that translates in terms of their efficiency:

As mentioned previously, the Spurs do not overwhelm their opponents on offense with one particular aspect, instead they just execute masterfully to get themselves quality shots. And when all else fails? Just give the ball to Tim Duncan on the low block and count the deuce.

On defense, San Antonio surrenders 96.6 points per game (12^th in the NBA) on 44.9% field goal shooting (13^th in the league). It’s a widely accepted notion that Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time, but not everyone understands why. Part of his greatness lies in his ability as a defender to defend the post, help out his teammates and contest shots at the basket, all without fouling.

Tim Duncan has fouled out 19 times of an NBA game (regular season and playoffs combined) throughout the course of his 14 year career. Dwight Howard on the other hand has fouled out 27 times in his seven NBA seasons. The point here is that Duncan is terrific at playing off and on the ball without committing infractions. And this is probably as a result of Popovich’s schooling. Indeed, the Spurs commit 18.5 fouls per game (second best in the league) and only allow 20.0 free throw attempts per game (best mark in the association).

In addition, this San Antonio group does a good job of keeping teams away from the basket. Rarely do they allow opponents to get uncontested looks at the rim because they do a concerted effort of always providing help and clogging the paint. Their defense yields 21.6 shots at the rim (13^th in the NBA) but only allow a conversion rate of 59.5% at the hoop (fifth best in the league).

Furthermore, although San Antonio only forces 14.5 turnovers per game (14^th in the association), they are an opportunistic defense that occasionally swarms players in the post or that are driving down the lane to swipe at the ball and get out in transition. One would think that it results in them getting exposed on defense, but on the contrary they do a good job of sticking to their assignments.

Indeed, the Spurs manage to always close out on players at the three point line and force them to put the ball on the floor. As a result, they only allow 16.1 three point field goal attempts per game (fifth best in the NBA).

With that said, there are ways to exploit Popovich’s defense. For instance, Tony Parker struggles to recover when he gets screened which typically results in opposing point guards getting open shots. Also, DeJuan Blair is a poor pick and roll defender because he lacks the foot speed to run back to his man. Consequently, a team with a good point guard and power forward that is a decent midrange shooter should be able to exploit San Antonio’s defense.

In two games against the Spurs this season, David Lee has converted six of 10 shots beyond feet. Hence, a pick and roll combo of Steph Curry and David Lee could do quite some damage given the fact that it would exploit the two weakest links of the Spurs defense. Also, the Tim Duncan led group does a good job of chasing players off the three point line, but if they have to account fro David Lee in the screen roll action, they may have to send defenders at him which could potentially free up Warriors shooters. Indeed, the Spurs do not allow a lot of long range shots, but when they do, the results are usually good for opponents.

San Antonio allows 39.2% shooting from three point range (29^th in the NBA) while the Dubs are shooting 40.0% from downtown so far this season.

San Antonio game notes: In two games versus the Warriors this season, DeJuan Blair averaged 15.5 points per game, 11.5 rebounds per game and 2.5 steals per game on 52.2% field goal shooting.

Golden State game notes: In two games versus the Spurs, David Lee averaged 17.0 points per game, 10.0 rebounds per game, 5.5 assists per game and 4.5 turnovers per game on 63.6% field goal shooting.