In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x Portland Trailblazers Preview

By: J.M. Poulard @ShyneIV

Now blasting in my boom box:

“On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me,

Chicago at New York,

Orlando at Boston,

Miami at Los Angeles,

Denver at Oklahoma City,

And Portland at Golden State all for free!”

Get in the Christmas spirit folks, because the NBA has decided to bless us with a few nationally televised games; and the Dubs will be playing in one of them in the nightcap. So put the kids away, break out the eggnog and get ready for Blazers-Warriors II.

These teams played each other on December 18^th in a game that Portland (15-14) won 96-95 as Monta Ellis missed a shot at the buzzer that would have given the Golden State Warriors (10-18) a win. We went In The Scope prior to the game and looked at Portland’s strengths and weaknesses so far this season, only to see them perfect illustrate their tendencies against the Warriors.

With Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Camby and Joel Przybilla all missing the game, Portland had to divert a little from their usual game plan. On offense, the Blazers initially ran some side pick and rolls, which usually free up LaMarcus Aldridge for open jumpers from the top of the key. However, given the absence of the guys mentioned above, the Warriors sagged off of players like Andre Miller and Wes Matthews to help his primary defender recover and close out on Aldridge, thus preventing him from getting any open looks. As a result, the Blazers took LaMarcus Aldridge away from the high post and put him on the block knowing the Warriors would have trouble guarding him because of the absence of Andris Biendrins. Golden State responded by doubling Aldridge on a few occasions, which freed up some of his teammates for uncontested shots.

Mind you, Golden State was fully aware that asking Portland to beat them from deep would be a tall order given their inability to usually make shots as evidenced by their season long shooting percentages. Have a look at the Blazers field goal percentage from different spots on the floor this season:

The numbers show that Portland struggles to make shots from beyond 10 feet. Yet, they were better in that respect on December 18^th at the Rose Garden when they hosted the Warriors. Have a look at the shooting numbers from that game:

The Trail Blazers did a better job of taking advantage of the shots that were available to them and also were far better than usual with their conversion rate at the rim. According to Hoopdata, Portland normally shoots 62.0% at the rim but did a far better job against Golden State earlier this month as they shot 71.4% at the basket (they converted 15 of 21 shots).

Defensively, Portland did exactly what they normally do during the season. The Blazers allow opponents to score 94.7 points per game (seventh in NBA) on 46.1% field goal shooting (tied for 16^th in the league). When the teams met, the Rose Garden Arena tenants held the Dubs to 95 points on 44.4% shooting from the field. Yet, Golden State had a shot to win the game as Monta Ellis missed a shot with the clock winding down that would have given his team the win.

The Warriors struggled to convert shots early in the game but attacked the offensive boards to stay within striking distance. With Marcus Camby, Joel Przybilla and Nicolas Batum  all in street clothes, Golden State pulled down 15 offensive rebounds. The extra possessions allowed them to score 48 points in the paint against a team that typically only yields 38.9 points in the paint per game (12^th in the NBA).

With Przybilla failing to make the trip with the team and Camby’s status being still up in the air; perhaps we should expect the Blazers to replicate the same defensive output as the first match up. Have a look at the conversion rate of the Warriors shots against the Trail Blazers when accounting for shot location:

Those shooting numbers nearly allowed the Dubs to pull out a road win. So if they can hit shots with the same frequency and force turnovers (they force opponents to commit 16.0 per game, good for third in the NBA), they will have a fairly good chance of sending the Oracle Arena fans home happy.

Portland game notes: Brandon Roy (knee) and Joel Przybilla (ankle) will not be accompanying the team on this three game road trip (starting tonight at Oracle Arena). Marcus Camby (shoulder) and Dante Cunningham (ankle) are traveling with the team but are listed as day to day.

Golden State game notes: Dan Gadzuric (groin) and Andris Biedrins (ankle) are listed as day to day and we have yet to receive word on whether they will participate in this game. Also, Stephen Curry is scheduled to make his return for tonight’s game.