In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x Phoenix Suns preview

By J.M. Poulard

After upsetting the Bulls on Saturday night at home, the Golden State Warriors (22-27) will try to build a home winning streak when they host the Phoenix Suns (23-25) tonight at Oracle Arena in a game that promises to have tons of fireworks. The Suns made the Western Conference Finals last year but given the changes on the roster during the summer, they will have a tough time making the playoffs this year. Let’s have an in depth look at them.

On offense, Phoenix averages 105.1 points per game (third in the NBA) on an impressive 47.2% field goal shooting (third in the league). If there’s one thing that stands out when watching the Suns play, it’s their spacing.  Indeed, no matter the situation, one gets the impression that their shooters are just perfectly situated on the court. Consequently, whenever Steve Nash decides to run a pick and roll with his big man, it results in either his screener getting an open look at the basket, or a perimeter shooter getting an open look from deep because his man rotated to the screener.

Because opposing teams tend to focus on taking away the easy field goal attempts at the basket, the Suns only get 20.3 shots at the rim per game (23^rd in the NBA), which translates into 40.8 points in the paint per game (17^th in the league). However, those shots are usually so well drawn up that defenders struggle to adequately contest them, thus resulting in Phoenix converting 68.1% of their attempts at the basket (second in the association). Also, because the Suns constantly force teams to rotate, they end up with a plethora of open shots. The tricky thing however is getting the ball to the open man; which might seem fairly simple but not every team in the league puts a premium on passing.

Steve Nash’s team on the other hand does it plenty. Nash does such a wonderful job of sharing the ball that it practically shames his teammates into following in his footsteps. The end result is a team that puts an added emphasis on always feeding the open man as evidenced by their 23.0 assists per game (fourth in the NBA). And in the case of the Suns, feeding the open man usually means finding the player that’s wide open from three point range. Indeed, this team from the desert averages 22.8 three point field goals per game (third most in the league) and connect on 37.8% of their attempts (seventh best in the association).

The areas of concern for the Phoenix offense mind you are their ball security issues (14.7 turnovers per game, good for 21^st in the NBA) and obviously their reliance on jump shots. On nights when the jumpers are clanging off the rim, it can make for a very long and unimpressive offensive performance.

On defense, Phoenix surrenders 106.4 points per game (29^th in the league) on a sizzling 47.3% field goal shooting  (27^th in the association). Just in case there was any doubt as to why the Suns give up a lot of points on some fairly hot shooting, it’s because they do not defend well. Their rotations in the pick and roll defense are quite often slow and one does not always get the impression that every player on the team is on the same page as far as their defense goes.

With that said, the Suns players at least make the effort of rotating to the front of the rim to deter opponents from driving all the way to basket. Indeed, Phoenix only allows 20.6 shots at the rim per game (third best in the NBA), but do not mistake that for great defense. Indeed, once opponents make it to the rim against the Suns, they convert 68.5% of their attempts  (third worst in the league). In addition, because Alvin Gentry’s team is so conscious of protecting the rim, they will practically dare you to shoot from 10 feet of the basket when coming off the pick and roll. The defender usually backs off and gives the ball handler the space to take an open shot. As a result, Phoenix allows the fourth most shots in the league within 10 feet with 15.7 attempts and struggle to defend the shot as evidenced by their 43.8% shooting allowed from that distance (20^th in the association).

Consequently, Phoenix struggles to defend the paint (they allow 44.5 points in the paint per game, 25^th in the NBA) and given the fact that they usually have shooters on the floor more often than not, they have trouble cleaning up their own backboards as we can see from their 12.3 offensive rebounds allowed per game (29^th in the league). But if you thought that was bad, former Onyx rapper Sticky Fingaz has news for you: “But but wait it gets worse”. The Suns inability to defend is not limited to the painted area; it actually extends beyond it. Once they have been attacked a few times by the ball handler on the screen and roll, they might have a defensive player come off a shooter to help defend the action or simply have the player defending the offensive threat go underneath the screen. The end result? A team that gives up a lot of open shots.

Only three teams in the NBA allow more shots from 16 to 23 feet (think just above the free throw line) than this Phoenix team. The Suns yield 22.5 attempts per game from that distance and let their opponents convert 42.9% of those shots (second to last in the NBA, behind the Warriors).

Expect both teams tonight to go up and down the court with minimal defense being played. Stephen Curry should get a lot of opportunities to go right at Steve Nash and the same is true for Monta Ellis and Vince Carter. However, expect both those Suns players to assert themselves offensively as well against the Warriors.

Phoenix game notes: In his last five trips to Oakland, Vince Carter has averaged 20.4 points per game and 5.4 assists per game on 45.9% field goal shooting.

Golden State game notes: Since becoming a starter (2006-07 season), Monta Ellis has averaged 27.1 points per game and 5.7 assists per game on 52.0% field goal shooting against the Suns when playing them at home.

Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected]. You can also find me on Twitter with the handle name ShyneIV.