In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x Philadelphia 76ers preview

By: J.M. Poulard

Fresh off their 109-102 Christmas win over Portland, the Golden State Warriors (11-18) will be hosting the Philadelphia 76ers (12-18) Monday night at Oracle Arena in what might be the easiest game on their schedule for the next two weeks. Seriously, look at the teams they will be facing after the Sixers: Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Orlando and New Orleans…all on the road. The best way to start the week at this point would be with a win. So what should they expect from this Philadelphia team?

On offense, the 76ers produce 95.7 points per game (22^nd in the NBA) on 44.9% field goal shooting. They do a great job of pushing the ball after defensive rebounds to get out in transition where they average 17.3 fast break points per game (third in the league). Part of the reason that they try to push the ball on every miss is because they struggle in the half court.

Although they do a great job protecting the ball as evidenced by their 13.6 turnovers per game (fourth in the NBA), they struggle to score because they lack scorers (my diploma in rocket science helped me figure that one out). When your two best scorers are Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala, your offense is in trouble. Indeed, Brand needs to be set up to be an effective scorer; otherwise he just ends up settling for jumpers instead of attacking the paint. Put this into perspective: according to Hoopdata, the notoriously jump shot happy Baron Davis who is scoring 8.7 points per game so far this season, is averaging almost as many field goal attempts at the rim (3.0) as Elton Brand (3.2).

Andre Iguodala on the other hand displays breathtaking athleticism when running the court. This becomes even more obvious when we see him get to the rim for a spectacular finish. However, we rarely see those happen in the half court. More often than not, Iguodala is content with sizing up his defender, trying to cross him over and then settling for the long jumper. Basically, Iggy tries to play like Kobe at times except you know, without Kobe’s game. The end result? Philadelphia shoots a mere 22.1 shots at the rim (18^th in the league) which translates into 39.9 points per game in the paint (19^th in the NBA). And yet, when they do take the ball to the basket, they are quite successful as they convert 66.0% of their shot attempts at the rim (sixth in the association).

Granted, a poor inside scoring offense does not doom a team if they have the required outside shooters to offset that weakness. But the 76ers are shooter deprived. Have a look at their shooting percentages from different locations on the court:

Remember the part when I mentioned that both Iguodala and Brand liked to settle for jumpers? Well the rest of the team follows suit as they attempt 21.5 shots from the 16-23 feet range, which is the sixth most tries from that distance in the NBA; and the graphic above demonstrates that they are the worst shooting team in the league from that range. Their shot selection makes as much sense as Kobe Bryant going back to Eagle, Colorado every summer to rehab.

On defense, the 76ers surrender 96.6 points per game (10^nd in the NBA) on 43.8% field goal shooting (eighth in the league). They do a great job of rotating on defense but struggle a bit in pick and roll defense. At times, it seems as though they are not sure whether to hedge or switch when defending the ball screens and thus often end up in no man’s land (basically completely confused about who’s guarding who). Philadelphia realizes that teams normally attack them in screen and roll situations to create mismatches and therefore they tend to shade their defenders towards the action to negate the advantage created by their opponent.

Also, even when caught in rotations, they manage to get out and always get a hand up to contest shots. That explains in large part why teams are shooting under 40% from the field from everywhere on the court except right at the basket. Teams just have a hard time getting open shots against the Sixers defense.

Mind you, their defense is not some impenetrable fortress like Fort Knox. Instead, they are more like Terry Benedict’s (portrayed by Andy Garcia) casino in Ocean’s Eleven: with the right group of guys, you can have what you want and even do it with style. Indeed, Philadelphia does not have any quality size to thwart people at the basket, therefore teams can score inside on them. 76ers opponents allow teams to shoot 22.5 shots at the rim (21^st in the league) and to convert 63.9% of their attempts (20^th in the NBA).  Players such as Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes are not good enough post defenders (last week, Big Baby made Brand look like the chair that defended Yi Jianlian during his draft workouts) to keep talented big men away from the rim and they also lack the height to successfully challenge or change shots. Consequently the 76ers give up 40.9 points in the paint per game (16^th in the league).

Philadelphia will probably chase the Warriors off the three point line which should give the Dubs some opportunities to drive and score some inside baskets. Also, Golden State should be able to get a few buckets from their post ups. It should be noted though that given the Warriors’ penchant to push the pace; they might give the Sixers a few opportunities to get out in transition and capitalize on a few easy baskets.

Philadelphia game notes: Lou Williams will miss this game to be with his newborn daughter.

Golden State game notes: Stephen Curry struggled with his shooting against the Blazers on Christmas Day (two for 15 shooting from the field) but did a solid job running the point as he dished out 11 assists. Andris Biedrins (ankle) and Dan Gadzuric (groin) are still listed as day to day.