In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x New Orleans Hornets preview

By J. M. Poulard

After dispatching the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night, the Golden State Warriors (24-29) will look to stay on track as far as winning is concerned when they host the New Orleans Hornets (33-23) tonight at Oracle Arena. The NOLA gang won the previous meeting on January 26^th and the Dubs will be seeking retribution. What should we expect in this match up?

On offense, the Hornets average 94.8 points per game (26^th in the NBA) on 45.6% field goal shooting (19^th in the league). This Nawlins team struggles to put up points on the board because they are for all intents and purposes a jump shooting team. The roster is stacked with players that struggle to create their own shots but that do a relatively good job of catching and shooting. Consequently, the responsibility falls on Chris Paul to run the offense and get the ball to his teammates for open jump shots.

On the season, the Hornets attempt 22.5 (fifth in the NBA) from 16 to 23 feet and convert them at a 41.6% (fourth best in the league) rate. They run a lot of curl plays for Marco Belinelli and also run some pick and pops for David West that result in long two points shots.

New Orleans usually struggles to get interior baskets as evidenced by their 20.0 shots at the rim per game (28^th in the association) and 37.3 points per game in the paint (25^th in the NBA). And yet, when the Hornets faced off against the Warriors in late January, it’s as if all of those ailments were cured (bad defense will do that for you). Monty Williams’ team took advantage of Golden State’s porous defense and manufactured 60 points in the paint. Granted, several of those points came courtesy of the transition game, as the Hornets put up 35 fast break points, thanks in large part to the Warriors 21 turnovers.

When looking back at the previous encounter, not only did the Hornets dominate the paint, but they also converted 13 of 22 shots from 16 to 23 feet (59% field goal shooting). Have a look at the boxscore, not many players had a problem with finding the bottom of the net:

If the Warriors fail to defend the interior once again, I would expect the Hornets to reproduce the same offensive showing.

On defense, the Hornets yield 92.6 points per game (third in the NBA) on 44.6% field goal shooting (eighth in the league). New Orleans has some very good defenders in Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor, but their strength comes from the team’s collective ability to guard opponents. Their defense often looks like a match up zone because the players make a concerted effort to always have a foot in the paint all the while seeing both the ball and understanding their assignments.

As a result, every drive attempt is met by a plethora of arms that are just ready to swipe at the ball and cause deflections. Therefore, teams are usually discouraged from trying to drive against their defense given the amount of resistance that the Hornets display on the path to the hoop. It explains why New Orleans only allows 21.5 shots at the rim per game (second best in the league) and 22.1 free throw attempts per game (fifth best in the association).

Nawlins defensive approach worked against the Warriors on January 26^th, as they limited Golden State to 22 shot attempts at the rim and 26 free throw attempts. They gave up more free throw trips than usual, but then again they also forced 21 turnovers and kept Golden State off the three point line (4 for 13 from deep).

In order for the Dubs to be successful against the Hornets, they need to force their big men to defend. New Orleans does not have a lot of depth in the frontcourt and will occasionally play small ball to give their big guys a rest or to protect them from foul trouble. If such is the case, the Warriors should have an advantage on the interior and have more chances to snatch offensive rebounds.

Also, David West can get caught looking at the ball instead of paying attention to his defensive assignments; hence a few back screens involving him could potentially free up his man or the player setting the screen.

New Orleans game notes: In his previous two games against the Dubs, Chris Paul has averaged 21.0 points, 15.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 4.0 turnovers on 61.9% field goal shooting.

Golden State game notes: In his two previous games against the Hornets, Stephen Curry has averaged 20.5 points, 5.5 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 3.0 steals and 3.5 turnovers on 58.3% field goal shooting.

Questions or comments? Feel free to leave them in the comments section or you can contact me by email at [email protected]. You can also find me on Twitter with the handle name ShyneIV.