In the Scope: Golden State Warriors x New Jersey Nets preview

By J.M. Poulard

The Golden State Warriors (16-23) will host the Carmelo Anthony led New Jersey Nets (10-30) today at Oracle Arena. Except well, Anthony is still a Denver Nugget. Confused? Imagine how the Nets players must feel. They have spent the bulk of the season hearing about potential trade scenarios that would change the make up of the team. And yet, no deal has been consummated; hence the Jersey team that we have seen all season is the one that will show up at Oracle this afternoon.

On offense, the Nets average 92.2 points per game (29^th in the NBA) on 43.5% field goal shooting (27^th in the league). Avery Johnson’s team struggles to score because well, the team lacks quality scorers. If it sounds obvious, it’s because it is. Have a look at New Jersey’s top five scorers this season:

Given the fact that their leading scorers have trouble making a high percentage of their shots, it stands to reason that the team as a whole would struggle to make shots.

The Nets’ top priority on offense is to get the ball to Brook Lopez in order for him to do some damage on the low block and also from midrange. He does a great job of creating shots on the block, especially when he faces up his defender. However, New Jersey understands that opponents will regularly throw double teams at Lopez given the fact that the Nets only convert 33.1% of their shots from three point range (27^th in the association); consequently they run a few sets for their perimeter players to get open at the wings. Indeed, if their guards and forwards are involved in the offense early, it’s easier for them to catch the ball off of double teams and to shoot with confidence.

The one problem? Even when they run plays for the Jersey perimeter players, they struggle to put the ball in the basket. For instance, the Nets run a few isolation plays for Travis Outlaw to get him going but unfortunately he takes those plays as a license to shoot. Outlaw has as much discipline on offense as J.R. Smith; hence he may end up shooting the ball even if double teamed.

Further exacerbating the problem, other than Devin Harris and Jordan Farmar, this Nets team does not really have any other player on the team that understands how or when to get the ball to their scorers. Indeed, when watching them play, it seems as though far too often they forget that they have Brook Lopez on the team.

With that said, New Jersey has a wildcard in Devin Harris. His aggressiveness seems to shift from one game to another; however when he decides to turn it on, they are a much tougher team to beat. With his speed and athleticism, he can at times morph into a one man fast break for a team that averages a mere 10.8 transition points per game (28^th in the NBA).

On defense, the Nets surrender 99.0 points per game (17^th in the NBA) on 45.9% field goal shooting (18^th in the league). New Jersey might not be an elite defensive team, but they do just enough to be able to stay close in games despite their inefficient offense. One of the things they do is defend big people. Their combination of size with Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors and Johan Petro fight opposing big men for position and keep them out of the lane. Consequently, the Nets only allow opponents to manufacture 21.0 shots right at the rim (ninth best mark in the league).

New Jersey’s length is usually problematic for most teams as evidenced by their 61.1% field goal shooting allowed at the rim (12^th in the league). However, the Nets perimeter defense is rather unimpressive. Whether it’s in the pick and roll, or simply defending isolations on the wing or at the top of the key, Avery Johnson’s players get beat rather easily.  And because their opponents routinely blow by their defenders, they usually leave their big guys out to dry to commit fouls. Consequently, the Jersey bunch gives up 27.3 free throw attempts per game (27^th in the NBA). As bad as the fouling is, the inability to defend guards and forwards on the wings means that opponents are consistently forcing the Nets to make rotations which leads to players getting open looks if the ball is shared properly. And well, the Nets allow opponents to pile up 22.2 assists per game against them (23^rd in the association).

The tandem of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis should be able to attack the New Jersey guards and create shots for themselves as well as their teammates. Also, Derrick Favors struggles with his rotations in the pick and roll defense, so the Warriors will probably force him to make decisions on defense that will lead to Golden State’s big people getting some easy looks at the basket. Andris Biedrins’ ability to defend Brook Lopez will be a huge factor that determines the winner of this game.

New Jersey game notes: Anthony Morrow (hamstring) is about a week and half away from returning to the court according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

Golden State game notes: David Lee has been held to less than 10 rebounds in his past three games, averaging 6.3 boards per game during the stretch.