As perturbed as some of the basketball world is about the roster that the Warriors have constructed, most of that discontent is based on the unparalleled potential this team has to achieve greatness.
However, with all those numerous star pieces, it’s an inevitability that individual sacrifices will have to be made, particularly regarding statistics.
There’s only so many shots to go around, and with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green on the court, they’ll have to divvy up a set number of shots over the course of a typical game.
That will naturally restrict some individual production, and Las Vegas oddsmakers are taking notice of that.
According to Bovada, nobody on the Warriors is the favorite to win NBA MVP next season. Those expectations are instead placed upon Russell Westbrook.
It’s a popular choice for numerous reasons. Westbrook is a triple-double machine, and was able to put up lofty numbers even when sharing the court with quite possibly the most dynamic scorer of the past decade in Durant.
Westbrook will be able to command more shots now, so his scoring totals should theoretically rise.
From an emotional standpoint, he’ll undoubtedly have a chip on his shoulder this season, and it stands to reason that he’s going to try to do everything in his power to make Durant regret leaving Oklahoma City.
I’m not sure I’d consider Westbrook the favorite, though. Typically MVP voters are inclined to bestow the honor on the best player on the team with the best record in the league.
Over the last 10 years, that scenario has happened 7 times. The only years it didn’t were Durant in 2014, LeBron James in 2012, and Kobe Bryant in 2008.
Bryant’s 2008 Lakers had the most wins in the Western Conference, but not in the entire league. James and Durant’s teams were 2 seeds in their conference.
So basically in the past decade, no MVP winner has played on a team that finished lower than 2nd in their conference.
Empirical evidence has its flaws, but when dealing with voting patterns, it’s very reliable to predict trends.
In order for Westbrook to win the MVP next season, the Thunder would conceivably have to finish at least as the number 2 seed in the Western Conference, and that seems dubious as things stand right now.
The Warriors are probably going to win more games than the Thunder. The Spurs won 67 games last season.
The Thunder won 55 games last season, and now are without a top 5 player in Durant. Steven Adams looks poised for a career year after his dominant postseason, and Victor Oladipo will combine with Westbrook to create an extremely athletic scoring backcourt, but it’s difficult to make the case that they’re better than they were last year, at least on paper.
Westbrook may have his best statistical year next season, but there’s too many impediments for me to agree that he should be the favorite to win MVP.
Westbrook is listed as having 2-1 odds, Curry is 4-1, James is 5-1, and Durant is 12-1. The challenge with anybody on the Warriors will be to have their statistics be eye-popping enough to garner the award, despite not likely needing as gaudy of numbers to win games.
I’d probably lean towards James winning it, but voters seem to consistently take for granted how dominant he is year after year. Certain fatigue results from a guy being in the conversation constantly, and although the Cavaliers seem like a lock to win the Eastern Conference next season, it’s always difficult to assume the voters will reward James for that.
It wouldn’t shock me if Kawhi Leonard wins MVP next season. He’s got the offensive numbers along with his amazing defensive capabilities to already make a strong case that he’s the best two-way player in the NBA.
Leonard sits with 16-1 odds to win MVP, which is tied for 5th with Anthony Davis and James Harden.
Davis and Harden certainly have the stats to be in the conversation, but voters don’t tend to give the award to any player whose team isn’t in the top 2 in their conference.
Harden could put up even better numbers than he’s had in the past due to Mike D’Antoni taking over as head coach of the Rockets, but again, the team isn’t likely to be at least a 2nd seed in the West.
Davis has a long history of injuries that he still has to contend with. In 4 NBA seasons, he has never played more than 68 games.
The Pelicans aren’t going to be at least the 2nd seed in the West next season, either. They’ll probably be better than their injury plagued 2015-2016 season, but not exceedingly good.
If I had to rank my potential MVP list, it’d probably go James, Leonard, Westbrook, Curry, Durant.
It’s going to be hard with the Warriors to really separate who the best player is, so even if they do win more than 70 games, voters might opt instead to give it to a guy like James, Leonard, or Westbrook, who are clearly the best players on elite teams.
It’s a safer bet that the Warriors are going to finish with the most regular season wins in the NBA than a player on the squad is going to get MVP.
Curry and Durant undoubtedly care more about winning NBA Finals MVP than regular season MVP anyway.