Garrett Ellwood – Getty Images
During this college football title game like break between the Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, I’ve needed something to distract myself from the Cleveland twitter accounts proclaiming that Tristan Thompson’s a max player and that a 70 percent Kyrie Irving can somehow guard Steph Curry.
-== Top 7 Warriors’ Moves In The Joe Lacob Era ==-
As such, I’ve done what would make any 19 year old’s parents proud: I’ve been researching NBA Finals prop bets. For those rational individuals who aren’t degenerate gamblers, a proposition bet is essentially a bet regarding the occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event. For instance, this past Super Bowl you could bet on the highly intellectual question of whether Marshawn Lynch would grab his crotch after scoring a touchdown (he didn’t). Since game one isn’t until Thursday, I figured I’d have a little fun analyzing and creating some of my own NBA Finals prop bets. In honor of the maximum number of games the Cavs will win during the NBA Finals, I’ll divide these prop bets into three sections.
1) You Can Actually Bet On These
*All odds from Sportsbettingdime.com. Click this link to find these bets and others.
–Odds of receiving the first flagrant foul during the 2015 NBA Finals:
David Richard – USA Today Sports
Andrew Bogut – 5/1, Matthew Dellavedova – 6/1, Tristan Thompson – 7/1, Kendrick Perkins – 12/1, Timofey Mozgov – 12/1, Draymond Green – 15/1
Perkins as a dark-horse for the first flagrant seems like a solid bet here. Perk was tied for second in the league in flagrant fouls this season, and was literately acquired by the Cavs to body-slam opponents during the playoffs. No opponent has truly tried to take-out Steph Curry throughout these playoffs -I’m worried Perk could be the first. Betting on Perkins is also a bet that the Cavs’ big men will get in foul trouble, as Perkins has only appeared in seven playoff games this postseason. Then again, according to BasketballReference.com, Perkins’ nickname is “Swamp Thang”. That sounds like a flagrant waiting to happen.
–Odds LeBron James will wear a headband at some point during the 2015 NBA Finals:
Headband – 3/1, No Headband – 4/11
Ah, the question which defines our time. This is a definite yes. During the Bulls series LeBron described the headband as “a game-time decision”, so we know it’s always a possibility. Basketball players are creatures of habit, and once the Cavs lose a couple games to the Warriors, LeBron may get superstitious and hark back to his power token from finals past.
–Odds to win the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP Award:
Steph Curry – 2/3, LeBron James – 2/1, FIELD – 12/1
These odds proclaim Steph Curry of having a 60% chance to win Finals MVP. The same website has the Warriors at 4/9 odds to win the title -that’s a 69% probability. It’s almost implausible that the Warriors win the title, and Steph doesn’t win MVP. While Draymond’s occupied with Lebron and Tristan Thompson, and Klay returns from a concussion, Steph will be feasting on Kyrie Irving until Coach LeBron gets frustrated and rearranges matchups. That 9% difference between Steph’s finals MVP odds and the Warriors’ title odds is like a free 9%. If you believe the Warriors will win the title, bet on Steph winning MVP.
2) Why Aren’t These Real Prop Bets?!
While these may not be prop bets*, at the very least they’ll be fun to watch for during the games. To clarify, I made all of these up.
Kevin C. Cox – Getty Images
*It’s possible you can bet on these somewhere, but I couldn’t find them during my research.
-If the Warriors lose, how many times will the post-game show mention “live by the three, die by the three”? This cliche is the NBA version of “get off my lawn”, and it drives me crazy. For the Cavaliers why don’t we say, “live by the iso, die by the iso”? A decade ago, “live by the three, die by the three” meant something because the three-pointer was used less efficiently making its production more volatile. But the times have changed. Three of the last four championship winning teams were jump-shooting teams. This season the NBA’s final four, all ranked seventh or higher in three point shooting. “Live by the three, die by the three” isn’t real basketball analysis anymore, it’s just an acknowledgment of the times.
-Will Steph Curry join the 42 Club? A Bill Simmons original idea, the 42 Club is the group of NBA players who during a playoff run of thirteen games or more have reached the number 42 when their average points, rebounds, and assists were summed up. The 42 Club is the best of the best. Michael Jordan entered its hallowed gates six times -coincidentally, that’s how many rings he has. This postseason LeBron’s almost guaranteed himself another entry to the 42 Club -he’s averaging a cool 46.3 so far. Through three rounds, Steph’s averaging 40.5. It’s possible he could make it.
-Which celebrity will sit next to Warriors co-owner Peter Guber during the Finals? In game five vs the Rockets, Guber brought Kanye West. Who’s next? The star of the “We Believe” run, Jessica Alba? Anna Kendrick, who is co-starring in an upcoming film produced by Guber’s company? Tim Cook? Obama?! The possibilities are endless!
Absurd & Impossible, Yet Entertaining Prop Bets
There’s no way any of these hypothetical prop bets could ever sniff reality. Mostly because they’re impossible to calculate, but also because they’re simply absurd. Enjoy.
–Will ABC show the starting lineups being introduced? This is a pet peeve of mine (and also Warriors World’s own Danny Leroux). The player introductions get me exponentially more hyped than ESPN’s horrid “This is Awesome” intro song, or any fancy graphic. I want to see and hear Oracle roar as Steph Curry is introduced. Is that too much to ask for?
Credit: Bob Stanton – USA Today Sports
–Will people start referring to Harrison Barnes as the splash cousin? I’m all in on “the splash cousin” nickname, with the hope that by 2020 every Warriors player not named Draymond will have some sort of splash related nickname. The splash godfather? The splash half removed brother (a twice traded player)? The splash uncle (Demarcus Cousin)? Anything’s in play!
–How many times will Cavaliers GM David Griffin ask himself why he traded Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love? Right now, LeBron’s like the Grand Central Station of the Cavs -everything runs through him. Imagine a team with Kyrie, LBbron, and Wiggins. Wiggins could do what Kyrie can’t do and what LeBron doesn’t want to do, play defense. Conspiracy theory: if Wiggins had signed with Rich Paul (who runs Lebron’s agency), there’s no way he would have been traded to Minnesota. Look at Tristan Thompson, who is a Rich Paul client. LeBron just said he “should probably be a Cavalier his entire career”.
–How many times per game will a South Beach relaxing Pat Riley wonder how he lost LeBron? Seriously, the story of LeBron returning to Cleveland is still insane. If Dwyane Wade doesn’t fall apart after a season of night offs, LeBron doesn’t leave. If San Antonio’s air-conditioning doesn’t break during Game 1, LeBron doesn’t cramp up, and Miami wins, LeBron doesn’t leave. If Pat Riley doesn’t give his “man up” press conference after the finals, or reveal to the media that LeBron’s expecting a baby girl, LeBron might not have left. The NBA’s crazy.
–Lastly, how many disrespectful Cavaliers fans will get destroyed by Draymond Green’s mom (@babers_mary) on twitter? This is my easiest imaginary prop bet yet. The answer: every single one of them.
As my man @_YoMek said on the latest Warriors World podcast: “it’s like the Warriors are in a video game…and LeBron’s the final boss”. Warriors fans, enjoy the hype this week brings.