Obstacles The Warriors Will Face Moving Forward

By: Jared Williams

A quick review of the world the last time the Warriors sustained 1st place in the Western Conference: Gerald Ford was President, a Super Bowl ad cost $110,00, Apple Computer was a couple months old, America’s population was more than 100 million less than current levels, and the year was 1976.

-== Top 7 Dunkers In Warriors History ==-

After almost 4 decades the Warriors have regained the title of best in the west and have raised their fans from the abyss of basketball purgatory to the bliss of basketball heaven shared only by some folks from Atlanta. How blissful has Warriors fandom become? Steph Curry just dropped 26 in a quarter and our first thought was, 11 points to go. Yet, as Warriors fans in the back of our minds lies the question our fandom was raised on: what can go wrong? In a season in which the Warriors possess the 2nd best point differential since the ABA-NBA merger (only trailing Jordan’s 1995/96 Bulls), let’s examine the 4 obstacles that could make this “go wrong”. What does “go wrong” mean? For this team, not making the NBA Finals. Crazy, I know.

For the purpose of memory retention, semi-ridiculous analogies, and mostly fun, we’ll call these 4 obstacles, the Sprinkler Effect, the Conditions of 7 Feet, the Uncle Drew Rule, and the Law of the Lone Survivor.

1) The Sprinkler Effect -Stephen Curry

A soaking wet shooter capable of launching from any angle who lifts those around him to new heights -Steph Curry is essentially a sprinkler and the rest of this Warriors team is a well manicured front lawn. Curry enables offensive spacing like no other player in the NBA. At 5th in the league in assists and a member of Golden State’s top 4 lineups by plus-minus, Curry brings more value than perhaps any player in the league. Naturally, when the league’s most valuable player (yes the MVP) is taken out of the game the Warriors almost immediately begin to dramatically regress -the front lawn begins to die without its sprinkler.

Much of this falls upon Curry’s backup, Shaun Livingston. For all his defensive length and court vision, Livingston has underwhelmed. On a team with a plus-minus of 11.6, Livingston sports an underwhelming 0.4 plus-minus. Livingston’s signature turn around jumper from an extended post-up has become overly predictable and his inability to shoot outside of 15 feet disrupts spacing for players like Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green who are finishers -not creators. In the playoffs this type of volatility in performance when Curry leaves the court can cost you games. The Warriors must improve when their Golden Boy rests.

2) The Conditions of 7 Feet -Andrew Bogut

43.9%. That’s the percentage of games Andrew Bogut has missed since the 2010/11 season. This season the Warriors are 30 & 3 with their Australian Behemoth and 9 & 5 when he’s dressed in a suit. The Warriors’ defensive philosophy centers on funneling opposing guards to Bogut. Without their defensive key, the Warriors are like an iPhone without its circuit board -flashy on the outside but lacking core functionality on the inside. There are conditions attached to having a 7 footer on your basketball team: the most damning is that 7 footers simply aren’t bred for the lighting pace of the NBA. For every proactive measure the Warriors take regarding Bogut’s health they will need an equal amount of luck. An obstacle the team can’t entirely control, Bogut’s nerve-racking health is the condition that comes with having a 7 foot rim protector.

3) The Uncle Drew Rule -An Absence of Post-Season Experience

By “Uncle Drew” I mean the illustrious, grey haired, Pepsi loving, commercial stunting, veteran of the hard court who would emphatically call the Warriors “Youngbloods”. Unlike Uncle Drew, the Warriors lack experience -namely post-season experience. Yes this Warriors core has made two straight playoff appearances, but the team hasn’t advanced farther then the Conference Semifinals. Not since the 1994 Houston Rockets has a team reached the NBA Finals from the West without first reaching the Western Conference Finals sometime in the 5 seasons prior. Excluding Leandro Barbosa, the Warriors don’t have any players with experience in a Conference Final. Yet, this Warriors team is like that go-to phrase moms use to brag about their children -they’re mature for their age. In terms of post-season experience, the Warriors must prove themselves to be an outlier.

4) The Law of the Lone Survivor -the Western Conference

This final obstacle is simple: the Warriors play in arguably the toughest conference in the history of the modern NBA. According to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Power Ratings, 9 of the NBA’s top 12 teams reside in the Western Conference. This is the Warriors’ most daunting obstacle.

One final point: the last Western Conference team to feature multiple exploding superstars and experience prolific success in a short window of time was the Oklahoma City Thunder. 5 seasons ago OKC was labeled as a title-hoarding dynasty for the next decade. 5 years later the Thunder have traded one of their “big three” (Harden), haven’t won a title, might lose their iconic superstar in his upcoming free agency, and wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today.

A team’s title window is only as long as the current season. Ask OKC, or Miami, or Indiana -there are no certainties in how many opportunities you’ll have. The Warriors have a genuine shot at a title. Are some of these obstacles net-picking? Sure. But if the Warriors are to reach the Finals they must conquer these obstacles. That, and they’ll need some good old-fashioned Australian 7-footer health luck.