With training camp slated to start a week from today on September 30, the official Steve Kerr era of Golden State Warriors basketball is just around the corner.
Kerr clearly has a roster that he believes in since he chose to turn down a position with his own Hall of Fame mentor Phil Jackson and also was a known proponent of not including Klay Thompson in any trade for Kevin Love.
It will be very interesting to see what Kerr chooses as the first focus of the 2014 training camp since he has no previous head coaching experience. Inheriting a team that finished 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and 12th in offensive efficiency, the latter may seem like the logical choice to start with.
The 2013-2014 season was the first time the NBA released advanced player tracking data to the public. Six cameras in every arena used SportVU software to track every play of every game, and give insight into areas of the NBA that humans simply could not chart.
Taking a look back at the Warriors player tracking statistics from last season, there are a few areas of concern that Kerr should address early and often in training camp and as the regular season gets under way.
Ball Movement
If you thought the Warriors offense last season involved a lot of isolation plays and not enough passing, you were very correct.
The team ranked dead last in passes per game at 243.3 per game, 14.7 passes fewer than the second to last Nuggets. Coming in at the top of the list were the Bobcats at 334.3, followed by the Spurs at 330.4.
Given the success that the Spurs have had playing unselfish, team basketball, it seems obvious that all teams should try to follow suit.
Not surprisingly, the Warriors were also last in the NBA in player touches per game and front court touches per game. Steve Kerr has made it known that his offense will incorporate elements of the famous Triangle, and that will force the team to start passing the ball more and give players more looks in different situations, including the front court.
With the offensive firepower on the Warriors roster, there is no reason that they should ever finish with a non top-10 offense. Getting the ball moving more through the Triangle will create both space and options for our playmakers that should help turn the offense back into one of the top units in the league.
Shot Selection
Due to the lack of passing as a team, the Warriors offense last season too often had to settle for pull-up jumpers in 1-on-1 situations as opposed to getting higher percentage looks at the basket.
There is no denying that they knocked down pull-up shots well at a clip of 38.3% total and 33.7% from downtown, good for 5th and 6th in the league respectively.
The problem is that all of their pull-up shots took away field goal attempts from catch and shoot looks and close shots (defined as any shot within 12 feet of the basket, excluding drives). The Warriors shot incredibly well in both of these situations, but did not score them at a proportional rate in comparison to the rest of the league.
In catch and shoot situations, the team had the 4th best percentage in the league at 41.5% total and 2nd best 3PT% at 40.8%. However, they only ranked 17th in catch and shoot PPG at 25.0.
They came in at 19th in the league at close shots per game at 12.6, but were incredibly efficient when doing so shooting the 3rd best percentage in the NBA at 62.6%.
The issue with ball movement goes hand in hand with too high of a proportion of points coming from pull-up shots. Hopefully Kerr will be able to solve both issues simultaneously.
With how well the Splash Brothers score in catch and shoot situations, and how effective David Lee and Andrew Bogut are at scoring on shots within 12 feet, the Warriors should look to increase these attempts significantly from last season if they continue to shoot them at top-5 rates in the league.
Durability of Stars
One of the more fascinating abilities of the SportVU software is to track player speed and distance traveled. The final stat that stood out when examining the Warriors data had much less to do with actual basketball play, but rather the rotation of those playing.
Returning home last week as gold medalists and key contributors in Team USA’s victory at the FIBA World Cup, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are the clear faces of the franchise at the start of the 2014-2015 season.
There is no question Curry and Thompson have youth on their side still, but boy have they put some wear and tear on their bodies in the past 12 months.
Both guards finished in the top-15 in the NBA last season in total distance traveled with Klay coming in at 7th with 199.7 miles and Steph at 12th with 197.3 miles.
When you factor in the Team USA training camp and scrimmage, three exhibition games, and nine games in the World Cup, fatigue certainly becomes a worry.
One of Kerr’s biggest challenges early on is going to be figuring out a rotation that is able to both win games while also keeping Steph and Klay fresh. If the Warriors plan on making a deep run into the 2015 playoffs, they will need their two stars to have a lot under their legs and that will not be the case if they are covering more distance on court than all but a handful of players in the league.
SportVU player tracking will likely be even more advanced this season and provide us with deeper data sets to dissect and analyze. Technology and advanced stats are becoming a crucial part of NBA analysis, and will allow both front offices and fans to become more intelligent about the game.
Let’s hope the Warriors are at the head of that pack.
Stats provided by:
stats.nba.com/playerTracking.html