Keys to the Season-Part 2- Keith Smart

By: Rick Blaine

This is the second in a three part series. Today I look at Golden State Warriors  coach, Keith Smart.

THE COACH
Like Golden State Warriors coach Larry Riley, Keith Smart does not come into his new position with a successful track record.  His record as an NBA head coach is 9-31. In fairness, he amassed that record as an interim coach on a very bad Cleveland Cavaliers team in 2002. Since that time, Smart has served as an assistant coach with the Golden State Warriors.  Unfortunately, those years of service are not the basis for a ringing endorsement either as the Golden State Warriors have struggled mightily over most of his seasons with the team.  Smart also has the lowly distinction of having served as the “defensive coordinator” on a team that has ranked last in the league in defense. Now granted, he was working under the parameters of Nellie’s system, but the results were far from encouraging.

But with decision to fire Don Nelson coming right on the eve of training camp, Larry Riley and Joe Lacob had to find a quick replacement. They went with Smart as he has a good rapport with the players and intimately knows the organization.  As Smart said on Media Day, “I know where all the bones are buried.”  We will see if Smart has the stuff to be a great NBA coach.  He’s toiled long for this opportunity, and he is finally getting his shot.  By all accounts Smart is a genuinely nice person, a hard worker, and a class act. He is easy to pull for.

Essential questions: 1) Does Keith Smart have the gravitas, aptitude, and leadership that it takes to be a successful head coach, and 2)  is his mediocre past in the NBA an unfair basis for judging his abilities to be a head coach.

There are several critical areas for improvement that Smart and his staff must address this season, and these are his keys to success:

Defense
When it comes to getting stops, the Golden State Warriors have been the Daddy Warbucks of the NBA.  They treat every opponent like a charity case.  Last season the Golden State Warriors ranked 29 out of 30 in Defensive Rating according to basketball-reference.com’s metrics, which are based on points allowed per 100 possessions.  The Golden State Warriors Warriors allowed a league-high 112.4 points per game last season, nearly five points more than any other team. Golden State Warriors opponents averaged a field goal percentage of .525, 27th worst in the league. The Golden State Warriors have been a national laughing stock and embarrassment because of their defense.  As a fan who has watched many Golden State Warriors games on NBA League Pass, I can tell you that over the years the broadcasters in opposing cities have reflexively impugned and mocked the Golden State Warriors for the mirage on the court that Don Nelson called defense.  Sadly, it is a running joke.  This trend must be reversed for the Warriors to make any significant progress towards being a playoff team.  The respectability of the franchise depends on rapid growth in this area.

A key problem facing Smart is he does not have strong defensive personnel.  Outside of maybe Dorell Wright and rookie Ekpe Udoh, no one on the team is a noted defender.  So the question is how will Smart inculcate systemic and cultural changes that will measurably improve the team’s defensive performance?  We’ll have to wait until the season starts to see what his defensive schemes looks like.  The fact that he had Wright running the team through Miami’s defensive schemes recently in camp illustrates the point that he’s looking for new ideas. That’s both reassuring and scary at the same time.  One gets the feeling that defense will be a work in progress.

New assistant coach Rob Werdann shared that the Warrior big men will be playing a much more physical brand of defense this season.  When asked by Jim Barnett in an interview over at Warriors.com about playing defense, Werdann said this, “[O]ff the ball as a big you have to get bodies on people. And that is something we’ve addressed from day one here. And we’re going to let others know that the Warriors are in town. They’re going to feel us.  There’s going to be no free reign…guys running around willy nilly all over the place. So we’re going to hit guys.  I mean we get hit.  Our guys get hit; we’re going to hit back, and hopefully we’re the first to throw the first one.”

This is great to hear, but we have yet to see evidence of this kind of aggression in the preseason.  This current group of Golden State Warriors is not physically intimidating. They need to get nastier.  I’d like to see a little more Bill Lambier and Rick Mahorn out of the front line, but I don’t know if they have it in them.

Even though the personnel that Smart has to work with does not have tremendous defensive talent, he should set high expectations for improvement.  Ambitious goals have to be set for individuals and the team that will lead to measurable improvement. The team simply can’t continue to be the bottom feeders of the NBA in defense.

Rebounding

David Lee goes over Darnell Jackson

As atrocious as the Golden State Warriors were on defense, they were even worse cleaning the class.  The Warriors averaged a league low 38.4 rebounds per game, but they gave up a league high 48.1 per game.  Their rebounding differential (number of Warriors’ rebounds minus the number of rebounds by their opponent) of -9.7 was a 4.6 differential behind the second worst team in the league, and there was a gaping 13.7 differential separating them from the team with the best differential rating.

There have been plenty of debates over the impact that rebounding has on winning.  Certainly the best rebounding teams are not always winners. In fact, Memphis, the team with the second best rebounding differential rating last season did not make the playoffs and finished the season two games under .500. However, of the 16 teams to make it to the post season last season, only four (Dallas, Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee) were outside of the top 15 in rebounding differential rating.

Let’s face it, rebounds equal possessions, and possessions cannot be squandered by a failure to rebound. More importantly, the Golden State Warriors cannot afford to continue to give their opponents nearly 10 more chances a game to score the basketball.  That margin has to be significantly reduced.

Judging by the first four games of the preseason, in which the Warriors have a -.25 rebounding differential, we are likely to see significant improvement in this area.  Of course, preseason games are played differently and with rotations that don’t reflect regular season play.  We’ll see what happens, but there is reason to be optimistic that the Warriors will improve in this area.

Moderating the Pace and Valuing Possessions
Last season the Warriors had a Pace Factor of 100.4, highest in the league.  The Pace Factor is another basketball-reference.com metric, and it an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.  Now it would seem that a high number of possessions per game would be an advantage.  The problem lies in the fact that Warriors opponents also enjoyed a high number of possessions (more when you factor in the rebounding disparity) in head-to-head matchups.

Having a high Pace Factor indicates a team that likes to run and get out in transition. Nothing wrong with that.  The problem lies in taking shots too early in the possession that are not open fast break layups.   The Warriors need to work for better shots and establish a balanced attack that includes a post game.  Don Nelson’s doctrine of “Every shot that can be created must be taken” must be eliminated from Keith Smart’s lexicon. It leads to far too many early, low percentage shots and easy defensive rebounding opportunities for the opposition.

By taking shots deeper into the shot clock, the Warriors will not only achieve a more balanced attack, but they will make the opposing team work on the defensive end. This is important.  In the past Warriors opponents have not had to work on defense, and that empowered them on the offensive end. There’s a reason why typically poor offensive teams have flourished offensively against the Warriors. It wasn’t just the Warriors horrible defensive schemes; it was the fast pace of the offense of the Dubs that led to easy, lightly contested shots on the other end.

I am not advocating a slow-it-down offense.  I prefer the transition game, and enjoy the beauty, elegance, and excitement of fast break basketball.  But in order for the Warriors to improve they will need to work harder for better shots and make their opponents work harder at the other end by moderating the pace.  As the medieval monks used to say, “Omnia moderatione et moderatio omnibus.”  That is, all things in moderation and moderation in all things.

Finally, the Warriors must cut back on turnovers. Last season they were 12th in the league at giving away possessions.  While it is important that players feel at ease taking risks with the ball, the team should improve its discipline and decision-making.  Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis must reduce their turnover numbers. The guards must take better care of the ball.  Curry, in particular, must avoid ill advised (and seemingly lazy) passes.  Again, Coach Smart has to be careful to not stifle Curry’s creativity, but he must impress upon him how critical it is to value possessions.

Motion Offense
The news that the Golden State Warriors are implementing a motion offense should be received well by fans who have longed to see an alternative to the isolation game and the pick and role.  Past Warriors teams have had a tendency to play a street ball-styled game as players like Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, and (last year) Monta Ellis pounded the ball in isolation sets or chucked up three pointers early in the shot clock with no Warrior near the goal to rebound.  The offense in place seemed to stifle ball movement as well as player movement away from the ball.  So did the lack of discipline of certain players who were granted too much freedom by a coach that would not penalize their poor decision-making.

Recognizing that he has good passers and unselfish players, Smart is going to capitalize by introducing a motion offense scheme. I had the chance to see live the Sacramento Kings of the early 2000’s under Rick Adelman and Pete Carril.  Carill brought to the Kings his famous “Princeton Offense.”  This scheme was adapted for the faster NBA game by Carril and Adelman and executed beautifully by players such as Vlade Divac, Chris Webber, Peja Stojakovic, Doug Christie, Mike Bibby, and Bobby Jackson.  Webber and Divac were excellent passers from the high post, finding Stojakovic and Bibby on the perimeter and hitting players like Christie and Jackson cutting to the basket.  The Kings offense flowed elegantly and efficiently; it was a joy to watch. The results were simply symphonic. Certainly, the motion offense that Smart is installing will be different. But it will be very nice to see the ball moving around the floor and players not standing around watching one man in isolation.  Already this preseason, the starting unit is doing a good job keeping the ball moving.  The flow of the offense seems better than in past years.  The question is will players have the discipline and unselfishness to stick to the plan, and not revert to bad habits when the Warriors struggle against better teams or slide into a losing streak?

Smart’s motion offense will hopefully encourage improved ball movement and player movement away from the ball.  If it does, this will lead to better shot selection and improved efficiency.  This in turn will also make opposing defenses have to work harder.

Finally, while it is good to see Smart incorporating a motion offense, he should not abandon the pick and roll.  The Warriors have the right players to execute it in Curry, Ellis, Lee and Biedrins.  They are all excellent pick and roll players, and the Warriors should exploit this strength.

Road Victories
The Warriors have been a historically bad road team. Over the last two seasons they have won a combined 16 games away from home, winning 8 out of 33 each season for a paltry 19% winning percentage.  The Warriors must muster the mental and physical fortitude that is required to win on the road.  It will help to have talent and—knock on wood—a roster not depleted by injury.  The road is a grind, and even good teams struggle away from home, but those that make the playoffs achieve at least a modicum of success outside of their arenas.  Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs last season, 11 had winning records on the road.  Seven out of 8 of the teams in the Western Conference that made the playoffs had winning records on the road.  Keith Smart and his staff need to do their part to mentally prepare the players for the rigors of the road.

In conclusion, Keith Smart should be evaluated this season on how well his team plays defense, rebounds the basketball, moderates the pace, protects the basketball, shares the basketball, and wins on the road.  There is one more thing.  Keith Smart has said that he is going to play a traditional line-up.  That should help the Warriors improve in all of the aforementioned areas.  The question is will he follow through on this promise, or will he revert to some of the small line-ups we’ve seen in the past?  Early in the preseason Smart has gone to Vladimir Radmanovic as his the first man off the bench to replace either David Lee or Andris Biedrins.  Radmanovic is a three, not a four.  When he comes in the game, the team becomes weaker on the boards and on defense.  The use of small forwards and wings at the power forward has not served the team well in past. Brandon Wright, Louis Amundson, and Ekpe Udoh should be manning the 4 and 5 spots exclusively.  Let’s hope that is the case once they are all back healthy.

Those are the keys to the season for the coaching staff. Tomorrow, we conclude with the players.