By Rick Blaine
There are seven cycles in the NBA year. The preseason, the regular season, the post season, the draft, the summer trading and free agent signing period, Vegas Summer League, and the off season. Since the Warriors almost never appear in the post season, for their fans the draft is sadly the climactic cycle of their year. Conditioned to disappointment and disillusionment, the draft offers these jaded victims a brief escape. For a short time, the excitement of hope and rebirth energizes the fan base. The draft feeds optimism, affording bad teams the chance to reinvent themselves with the selection of an impact player. As we learned from the Curry selection at last season’s draft, one player can change the direction of a franchise.
So in a few hours the Warriors will select the sixth pick in the draft, and the faithful will watch with great anticipation. How will it all shake out? Who will the Warriors take? Who SHOULD they take?
The mock drafts have been all over the place this week with the fastest moving target being Demarcus Cousins. Up until this week, the big question was would Cousins drop to six. Now there seems to be a lot of chatter and flux in the predictions. The draft boards look a lot different today than just a week ago.
Ignoring the rumors and forsaking the refuge of conventional thinking, here is the order I think that the players should be selected. Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction of the order I think players will go.
The Wizards should take John Wall. He’s the best basketball player in the draft. Wall is a sensational athlete, he plays the game the right way, and he is going to be an elite point guard in the league right away. Whatever shortcomings he has now (e.g., outside shooting), he will improve on. The Wizards are set at point guard for years, and they will have a great talent to build around.
The Sixers should draft DeMarcus Cousins. Yes, DeMarcus Cousins. I’m not down on Evan Turner; I’m just high on Cousins. And, no, the operative word here is not “high.” Cousins is the best center in this draft; in fact, many college and NBA experts have made the case that he is the second most talented player coming out period, regardless of position. As wild as this may sound, the facts remain that good, skilled, athletic post men are and always have been a rare commodity. And in this particular era, there are very few impact centers. A GM who does not capitalize on an opportunity to grab one is making a big mistake. Cousins has great hands and great footwork. For all of the talk of him being a head case, he is clever on the basketball court. He has soft, quick hands, and he can handle the rock. Fans will be surprised by his creativity. He is an efficient rebounder, and he takes up a lot of space in the paint. Though he doesn’t jump out of the gym, he finishes well. He has an attitude, but that could serve his team well if channeled properly. Cousins may be “impossible to coach” as Jay Bilas has indicated, but he is no J.R. Rider or Chris Washburn. There are no stolen sterios or abusive conduct on his record. Of course, if the Sixers really want Cousins, they would be smart to trade down for him since “conventional wisdom” dictates that he’ll be drafted somewhere around the fifth pick. Finally, it looks as though people are coming around to the fact that Cousins is going to be a better player then Derrick Favors. We’ll see if GM’s have the courage to recognize this tonight. He won’t go #2, but I don’t see why he shouldn’t.
The New Jersey Nets should draft Evan Turner. Turner displayed a diverse skill set at Ohio State, and played the college game in the mold of Danny Manning. He was asked to play the point for his team last season and shined in that role in spite of the fact that he is a natural shooting guard/small forward. He carried his team, and played with intelligence and mental toughness. Turner is very good at all aspects of the game. He can dribble, pass, rebound, shoot, and finish. He is remarkably strong for his size and frame, and he makes very good decisions on the floor. He is a terrific playmaker and a strong finisher at the rim in spite of his lack of explosion. He should have an immediate impact on the team that drafts him. Turner has been frequently compared to Brandon Roy, and I think that is an apt comparison. He will be a very safe and solid pick. Though the Warriors don’t have a chance at acquiring Turner, he would be a terrific backcourt mate to Curry. If the Sixers take him as expected, the Warriors could probably offer a deal for him, but they would have to be willing take on Elton Brand’s salary as part of that deal. Taking on a huge salary would run counter Larry Riley’s recent trend of dumping salaries and shedding bad long-term deals. More importantly, that move could be regarded as devaluing the team and result in lower the bids by prospective buyers. So it’s not going to happen.
The Minnesota Timberwolves should take Wesley Johnson. Johnson provides the team with a skilled wing player that will compliment their front court of Jefferson and Love, though Jefferson is probably not long for Minnesota. Johnson comes into the NBA mature and ready to contribute. Athletic and skilled, he will be a nice piece for the young Timberwolves. Though he doesn’t create well off the dribble, his outside shooting is consistent, and he can finish strong at the rim on fast breaks and on allie oops. He will be a dynamic, exciting player that will excite fans and pump up teammates.
The Sacramento Kings should take Derrick Favors. Were it not for Love and Jefferson, I would have probably had the Timberwolves selecting Favors. The Kings should be very happy to land Favors. He has blue chip athleticism to go with his impressive size and frame. He has the prototype NBA power forward body. Favors would be a good fit for the Kings because they are a young team that is need of young post talent. He would have time to develop along side Tyreke Evans. In high school he was rated by Scout.com as the #1 high school prospect in the country. He did not have an outstanding season at Georgia Tech, but much of that is attributed to the fact that the Yellow Jackets had a poor backcourt and to the fact that Junior Gani Lawal got a lot of his touches in the post. Favors has unearthly athleticism, and general managers should be willing to wait for him to grow into his talent. Favors is a very good pick at five for the Kings.
The Warriors should take…a pill. But seriously, the draft lottery was unkind to them. They were lucky enough to have Curry drop them last season, and all they can do tonight is hope for similar dumb luck again because, as so many have already pointed out, this really is a five player draft. The drop off is significant at six. Many prognosticators have the Warriors taking Greg Monroe at this spot. Not a bad pick at the six spot, but not an impact player. I see Monroe as being at best a taller Juwan Howard with better passing skills. He will be a finesse player who needs a strong power forward to compliment his finesse came. He will be a nice high post center and would benefit playing in a motion offense. Though Monroe has a very high basketball IQ and has some very nice skills, he is too passive at times, and he has a slow motor. In terns of passivity, he might be the reincarnation of Joe Barry Carroll. His inconsistency will drive fans mad.
The latest rumors have the Warriors looking to trade Monta Ellis and the pick. I’m not sure how that would work, but I do believe that Warriors would be well served trading up and trying to nab Cousins or Turner or trading down and acquiring a player like Paul George whose game is similar to Wesley Johnson’s.
With a sale of the team imminent and Corey Maggette’s contract now off the books, things are looking up for the Warriors for the first time in a long time. Hang on to that thought, and just know that whatever happens tonight in the draft, it’s all good.