Courtesy of Poster Stick doggie dog in the forum
Good:
Nelson is a world class athlete in every way. World class. I have no
doubt that he could start in the NFL if he put his mind to it.
Nelson’s work ethic is second to none. He is Jerry Rice Jr when it comes to training.
Nelson has crazy springs. Nelson is NBA starter caliber quick. Nelson has arms that go from here to across the court.
Nelson is tough as nails. Nelson is strong as an ox. Nobody can stop
Nelson from bulling his way to the hole. In this, he is Corey Maggette
Jr.
Nelson is, right now, one of the top 50 perimeter defenders in the NBA. This is a very conservative estimate.
Nelson is, right now, one the very best rebounders in the world under 6’3″ in shoes (if not the very best).
Bad:
Nelson has always had an ugly shot and a slow release. His range, even
on set shots, has never extended beyond the college three point line.
His shooting percentage off the dribble has never been high.
While Nelson can bull past his man anytime he pleases, what he does
after this is not typically Monta-esque in terms of his conversion
rate. If he gets trapped effectively on his way to the hole, he often
loses the ball. If he is challenged at the hoop by athletic trees, he
is often rejected or forced to change his shot. Unlike Ellis, when
Nelson is forced to change his shot, his conversion percentage
decreases significantly.
Nelson’s handle has never been such that he can reliably dribble
through heavy traffic. He has improved his handle quite a bit over the
last two years, but it is certainly not one of his strengths.
Nelson is a bit of a head case from the free throw line when the
pressure is on. And even when the pressure is off, he is just a 66%
free throw shooter.
Bottom Line:
Nelson’s offensive efficiency, shot selection, care of the ball and
decision making so far this preseason have surpassed almost anything he
has done at such a high level of competition at any time during his
college career.
The difference may simply be his role. At Duke, Nelson could always
bull by any guard covering him in practice, so his role was to be the
same scorer in Duke’s games as he was in Duke’s practices. When Duke
needed scoring, Nelson tended to force the action. Nelson often faced
superior interior defenders in big games than in Duke’s practices, and
so he was not the greatest finisher. On the Warriors, Nelson is never
even one of the top three scoring options, so he hasn’t forced the
action on offense. And because he hasn’t, he has been playing the best
basketball of his life.
Or so I hope.
We’ll find out soon enough.