Jun 11, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) reacts after a play during the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers in game four of the NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
A month ago to the day, the Warriors faced a 2-1 deficit on the road after playing a disappointing and uncharacteristic first three games of the series. Each time, the coaching staff made massive strategic changes and the team responded with a return to form.
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The Cavs have played better than the Grizzlies so far (and big credit to David Blatt for his coaching choices which have been excellent so far) but as of now the song feels just about the same.
One big difference between the two series that has to be mentioned before going into the parallels is that Game Four was more of the outlier for Cleveland than it was for Memphis. The Cavs’ role players hitting open shots makes Game Four substantially closer, though I think the Warriors still pull it out. That understanding also makes the road harder because while Golden State played much closer to their standard in Game Four than the rest of the series, we can expect the Cavs to do better as well.
Jun 11, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Each Game Four featured a major adjustment that was a surprising move to address a more apparent flaw. While many of us advocated for the Warriors to start Andre Iguodala in this series and to defend Memphis differently, the specific shift was altogether different and more effective in both cases. This time, starting Draymond at Center put Golden State’s best defender on LeBron James from the outset but also helped remind the team that they needed to scrap and play fast without hurrying. Relying heavily on lineups that can switch, help and recover produced more switching, helping and recovering on defense but also likely played a role in the Warriors closing the gap on 50-50 balls. Some or maybe all of this improvement could be justified by just trying harder without the change but it may have played a role. I have referred to the Kyrie Irving injury as “clarifying” to the Cavs- while it made them a less dangerous team, it narrowed the paths to victories and forced their players into specific roles. Once Cleveland knew the only way to win was outscrapping the Warriors while slowing the game to a halt, the entire team embraced the new challenge. In a way, Coach Kerr manufactured a little more of that urgency by making the larger change instead of a smaller one.
Draymond at Center brings a few key benefits that were more pronounced in Game Four due to the Cavs’ specific talent. Timofey Mozgov has been a huge factor in the Finals, likely the second or third-best player in the series so far. His interior defense has led to a reduction in Golden State shots at the rim and reduced effectiveness too, which is the double you want to see from a rim protector. (Andrew Bogut did this in the regular season) While Mozgov still had a monster game statistically in Game Four, forcing his attention outside of the paint produced openings all around the court. The Warriors had 50 defended shot attempts at the rim on Thursday, almost as many as Games Two and Three combined (57) while scoring at their higher percentage on those looks in the Finals. Even with a clear responsibility to protect the paint, Mozgov simply cannot do what Bogut got to against Tony Allen because Draymond and Andre are capable of making those shots. Cleaner looks also usually mean more makes, producing confidence that improves defensive effort. While everyone would like to do their absolute best regardless of how well they are scoring, we are human beings who add bounce with success and can spiral down after disappointments. That same understanding likely played a role in Coach Kerr deciding to keep Harrison Barnes in the starting lineup- last season, the two players with the biggest disparity in their offense with Stephen Curry on the floor were Barnes and Green. Even though Harrison’s shots did not fall in the beginning of the series, Golden State needed Barnes’ effort with a tough defensive assignment.
The Warriors got what they needed out of the lineup change but will need to play smarter to give themselves a buffer since Cleveland should play better in Game Five. After all, Cleveland made 19% of their shots outside of the restricted area in Game Four, which is more than unsustainable. Stephen Curry talked after Game Four about how his turnovers helped swing the game and it was true- two consecutive mistakes led to four easy Cavs points and a momentum swing. While the Dubs played closer to their talent level in Game Four, Cleveland likely did not which could mean we are in for a barnburner of a Game Five.
A few stray notes:
– Cleveland was 7/16 on second-chance FGA, which is close to what I would expect considering the lineups involved. The Cavs were an uncharacteristically low 1/11 and 3/17 in the first two games so that is one area Golden State should not expect a dramatic improvement from Cleveland following Game Four.
– Shaun Livingston played a nice game despite limited minutes. He creates good looks and I continue to love the TLC lineup (Thompson, Curry and Livingston) because his ballhandling allows Steph and Klay to play off the ball at the same time. Since a defense cannot afford to double a player without the ball, it can produce some cleaner looks for Curry like increasing his isolation possessions against Dellavedova.
– Seeing Andrew Bogut play so little was jarring considering the huge role he played in this team’s success. I totally understand where Coach Kerr was coming from but continue to think that the Aussie should play when Mozgov sits since the other Cavs may not be a strong on the defensive gameplan for him.