Warriors World reached out to a few Pacific team bloggers to get their thoughts on the Warriors. So we were able to get Phillip Barnett of Forum Blue &Gold (Los Angeles Lakers), Nick Flynt of Clipperblog (Los Angeles Clippers) and Andrew Lynch of Valley of the Suns (Phoenix Suns) to go 3-on-3.
1. The Warriors have been playing at a slower pace this season, which has kept the scores fairly low. But are the low scores simply a result of the slower pace or is the Dubs defense a little stingier based on what you’ve seen?
Phillip Barnett, Forum Blue & Gold: I don’t know if the defense is intrinsically stingier, but I think the lower scores might have more to do with the Warriors offense putting their defense in a better position to succeed. Per Hoopdata, the W’s are taking AND making five more shots around the rim. With their offense going further away from the reckless abandonment that it had been in years past, the defense has been able to set up in the half court instead of trying to cross-match in transition. However, give a lot of credit to Mark Jackson. His guys are working a lot harder on the defensive end. The numbers aren’t markedly different (they’ve moved from the bottom third to the middle third in terms of defensive efficiency), but they’re exuding an effort we hadn’t seen from this organization in some time.
Nick Flynt, Clipperblog: I definitely feel like the Warriors have been more active on the defensive end and the numbers so far back it up. Unfortunately, there is only a slight difference in terms of league ranking (24th in points per possession surrendered this season from 26th at the end of last season), and the league’s offensive efficiency as a whole is down from an average of 104.4 points per 100 possessions last season to 99.9 early in this season. So the Warriors are a little better on D, but not much.
Andrew Lynch, Valley of the Suns: To my eyes, the Warriors are a bit stingier so far this season, though that might not be the most accurate way of putting it. Instead, they don’t seem to have an absolute sieve among their major rotation players, with fewer players who are an absolute negative on that end of the court. That shouldn’t be confused with Golden State being even an average defensive team, however; they’re simply not quite as bad as they’ve been in recent years. The backcourt still has its limitations, of course, and the Warriors are getting destroyed by the roll man on pick-and-rolls, but their overall defense is slightly better on a per possession basis than it was last year.
2. In your eyes, is Monta Ellis’ rap as a gunner warranted or not?
Phillip Barnett: Ellis was drafted straight out of high school where he had a 72-point game and essentially began his NBA career playing Nellie Ball, where gunning is praised to a certain degree. Like most shooting guards with high usage rates, Ellis has taken some questionable shots (being generous here). However, this season Ellis seems to have matured a bit and has played a much smarter game this season as witnessed by his 8+ assists per game mark. A lot of his maturity may have been forced upon him due to the lingering ankle issues that have kept Steph Curry off of the court — but it’s maturity nonetheless. Without Curry in the backcourt with him, he’s been creating for teammates more and taking fewer (bad) shots despite his raised usage rate.
Nick Flynt: Yes. But with some caveats. The fact is, the majority of players are gunners at heart. It’s just that players like Monta who are able to shoot a lot and still be somewhat efficient get more shots than other would-be gunners, so we notice these guys more and they become overrated by some (people who overvalue points while ignoring efficiency) and then, I think, undervalued by people seeking to play
down a player’s scoring when it isn’t incredibly efficient. Monta might not have a great assist rate, but recent research has shown that the amount of attention he draws from the defense does help his teammate’s scoring.
Andrew Lynch: Oh, absolutely. Ellis took the sixth most field goal attempts per 36 minutes of players playing at least ten minutes per game last year; with the Warriors’ pace, that amounted to the second most total field goal attempts of qualifying players. The negative impact of his penchant for shooting, however, might be slightly overstated. Sure, Golden State has one of the most efficient point guards in the league in Curry, but Ellis’ career eFG% is actually higher than Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose. The Warriors would be served well by Ellis reigning it in, particularly when Curry is on the floor, but there are players held in higher regard who are worse volume shooters.
3. If given the choice: Curry or Ellis?
Phillip Barnett: When you compare them statistically, Curry and Ellis aren’t significantly different, but the manner in which they tally their numbers is where you’ll find the difference. If you’re looking for a guy who can create shots for himself, penetrate the lane, finish around the rim and kick out to shooters after the defense collapses, you go with Ellis. If you’re looking for a guy who picks his spots, play around the perimeter, hit from deep with regularity and use great angles to tally assists, you go with Curry. The relative health of each guy will have a lot to do with who you go with. Personally, I’m a fan of Stephen Curry’s game, but if I’m a GM of a team that needs a wing who can score, I’m not mad if I end up with Ellis.
Nick Flynt: If we aren’t ignoring age, it’s definitely Stephen Curry. If we are ignoring age…still Stephen Curry. Neither is a particularly good defender, but Stephen is overall the more effective player for the future and arguably the more effective player right now. Shooting, passing, rebounding, upside; all lead me to Curry over Ellis.
Andrew Lynch: Curry. With that being said about Ellis’ shooting, I’m still taking the efficient point guard, especially in this hands-check-free era. Neither is a great defensive player, and Curry’s offensive efficiency makes it a fairly easy choice for me. If Curry’s ankle continues to give him issues, I could be swayed to Ellis’ side, but for now Curry is my pick, even with his injury questions.