Starting Thursday night at Oracle Arena, the Golden State Warriors will meet the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second straight season in the NBA Finals. Led by Stephen Curry and LeBron James respectively, the Warriors and Cavs will clash again after the Warriors prevailed last season, winning the series 4-2.
There was some controversy in the betting world as after the Oklahoma City Thunder took a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors odds to win the championship fell behind both the Thunder and Cavaliers.
But, as we all know now, the Warriors were able to become only the 10th team in the history of the league to come back from a 3-1 playoff series deficit and defeat the Thunder in 7 games.
Due to this resurgence, the Warriors again took over as the odds on favorite to win the title. The Warriors’ odds currently sit at -205 and the Cavaliers are at +185.
NBA Finals odds – updated:
Warriors -205 (66% chance)
Cavs +185 (34% chance)— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) June 1, 2016
Meaning Cavs superstar LeBron James was faced with another round of questions about being the underdog in a finals series. However, his response indicates that he is unfazed by such matters.
LeBron on CLE underdogs: "Not my concern. I don’t get involved in all of that – underdog, overdog, whatever the case may be. It’s stupidity"
— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) May 31, 2016
While LeBron has every right not to be bothered by odds and whether or not his Cavaliers team is the favorite, the record books have not been kind to underdogs in the NBA Finals.
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s ELO ratings, only 15 times in the history of the NBA has the underdog gone on to win the title. More so, when the favorite has at least a 2/3 chance of winning, in the 39 series where this has occurred, the favorite has won 35 of them. Currently, FiveThirtyEight has the Warriors sitting at a probability of 69% to win the title and complete their historic season.
Obviously, there are many other factors that go into a series, so to write off this Cavaliers team simply due to odds would be foolish at best. But in the 6 other Finals appearances that LeBron has made, he has been the underdog 4 times and lost 3 of those series. The only victory as an underdog coming against the Thunder in 2012. However, in 2011, LeBron’s Miami Heat were massive favorites against the Dallas Mavericks, and still lost the series.
While odds do not paint the entire picture, they do provide a fairly accurate template for what to expect, and the odds have certainly not been kind to King James.
The NBA Finals begin Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena.