By: J.M. Poulard

Fresh off their loss to the Utah Jazz, the Golden State Warriors (8-16) will be back home tonight to host the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-18). This Warriors team was filled with such promise earlier this season but now seems to have reverted to their form from last year. In the Timberwolves, they will find an opponent that has struggled to string together wins this season.

Minnesota has lost eight of its last 10 games by an average of 20.4 points. The biggest issue the Wolves seem to encounter is their complete inability to defend with any form of success. For the most part, the team has mediocre defenders who struggle with their rotations. When watching the Timberwolves operate on defense, they make me believe that the Warriors World staff of Ethan Strauss, Rasheed Malek, Billy Hoyle, Lucena Herrera and I could potentially look like the Showtime Lakers against them.

Indeed, Minnesota gives up 109.1 (29th in the NBA) points per game on 46.3% shooting (19th in the league) because they struggle to rotate on drives and pick and roll situations. Once opponents get passed the first line of defense, they are susceptible to getting their shot blocked at the rim (Minnesota is 3rd in the NBA with 6.4 blocks per game), however if the ball gets dished to an open teammate, the Wolves usually struggle to recover. As a result, Minnesota surrenders 39.9 points in the paint (15th in the association). Given the fact that the lane is so inviting to Wolves opponents, the only thing they can do is foul to prevent easy baskets; which translates into 30.0 free throw attempts allowed per game (last in NBA).

Also, the Timberwolves do great job of playing hide and seek with opposing shooters as they allow adversaries to shoot 38.5% (24th in the league) from downtown (quick observation: if an opponent has the ball at the three point line and a Wolves player runs out to contest, a pump fake seems to always get them to leave their feet because of their inability to properly close out). And just in case you weren’t convinced that Minnesota had no interest in playing defense, they fail to get back in transition thus allowing 17.5 fast break points (28th in the NBA).

With that said, surely we can’t expect this Wolves team to be all faults and no qualities. Right on cue, their offense comes to the forefront to help them out to some degree.  The Timberwolves average 101.8 points per game (9th in the NBA) on 43.5% field goal shooting (26th in the league). The overall shooting numbers are far from impressive considering how it is that they miss shots. Oddly enough, the Wolves do get inside the lane against their opponents but just struggle to finish close shots at the baskets.

According to Hoopdata, Minnesota takes 21 shots on average right at the rim but only manages to convert 59.6% (27th in the NBA) of their attempts. Furthermore, they lead the league in shot attempts within 10 feet or less from the basket as they take 21 shots from that distance but only convert 36.5% (dead last in the NBA) of those field goal attempts. The problem in this case is that the players getting the bulk of the shots (Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic and Corey Brewer) typically take their attempts from within 10 feet or less but fail to convert with any regularity.

However, Minnesota has found a way to address that weakness so far this season: crashing the boards. The Timberwolves are the best offensive rebounding in the NBA (14.2 offensive rebounds per game) and use that advantage to generate 40.9 points per game in the paint according to Team Rankings. Also, second chance opportunities usually catches defenses off guard and consequently out of position; which helps the T’Wolves shoot a blistering 39.1% from three point range (2nd in the NBA).

With that said, Golden State has lost seven games in a row but I do expect them to snap this losing streak at home against Minnesota. The Wolves struggle with handling the ball as they commit 17.5 turnovers per game (last in the NBA) while the Oakland police routinely receives 911 calls because the Warriors lead the league in steals with 9.5 per game. Forcing miscues should allow the Dubs to get out on the break and score given Minnesota’s poor transition defense. Combine that with Golden State’s ability to take care of their boards and the fans at Oracle Arena should be going home happy tonight.

One Response