While working on the Proving Ground pieces for Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli, I realized it would be worthwhile to paint the picture for Golden State’s 2017 too. The possibility of Kevin Durant or Al Horford in 2016 certainly tantalizes but the Summer of 2017 could play a larger role in determining the long-term future of the Warriors.
2017 carries substantially more mystery because it will likely be dictated by the rules of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement but having a sense of the general contours will help explain the moves Bob Myers and the front office make in the near future.
The Cap:
We have already seen a ton of ink spilled (some by me on Warriors World) about how the NBA’s new television deal will change the landscape of the league. Since the league calculates the salary cap using income, a richer TV contract means a larger cap.
At present, the estimates I trust most have the salary cap moving from $70 million this season to $89 million in 2016-17 (Amin Elhassan on ESPN Insider). That jump garners plenty of attention but the next season takes it to another level. While the league will likely have a new Collective Bargaining Agreement by then which could shift cap calculations, Elhassan and other experts put the 2017-18 cap number at around $108 million, a similar jump to the one we will see next summer. Interestingly, part of the reasoning for the second increase is that the league will not spend enough money on players next summer, which pushes the cap up the following season. In a way, the best projections right now expect that it is functionally impossible for teams to spend quickly enough and they are probably correct.
Mar 9, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) with forward Draymond Green (23) and guard Klay Thompson (11) against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
What We Know Now:
The Warriors only have three players under contract for the 2017-18 season: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and 2015 draftee Kevon Looney. With their 2017 first round pick bound to Utah as a part of the Biedrins/Jefferson trade in 2013, the Dubs should only add one more first round choice between now and then, likely at a very low per-season salary. Those three players and an estimate for the 2016 pick add up to about $36.5 million for the 2017-18 season.
Next comes Stephen Curry. The MVP will be an Unrestricted Free Agent for the first time in 2017 and his super-cheap salary will produce its final benefit for Golden State that summer. The NBA uses cap holds (explained here) as a way of preventing teams from gaming the system by signing free agents from other teams and then using Bird rights to retain their own players. The size of a given player’s hold comes from their status coming off their most recent contract and their salary the season before. That means Curry’s cheap deal produces a lower cap hold – about $7 million less than his maximum. As soon as Curry agrees to a new contract, that salary replaces the hold, so any gap between the hold and salary has a short shelf life.
Another group to consider are the Warriors who will be on new contracts by then. Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli will be on their second NBA contracts in 2017 whether they agree to it this fall or next summer. Additionally, James Michael McAdoo, Leandro Barbosa and Marreese Speights could either have guaranteed money or cap holds on the 2017-18 balance sheet.
Finally, we have the other 2017 free agents. Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Jason Thompson all have contracts which can expire that summer, though Livingston and Thompson have partially guaranteed that the Warriors could shed before then. Assuming they are still around, these four are in the same boat as Curry: cap holds calculated using their prior salary. While Curry will definitely sign for more than his hold if he chooses to stay in the Bay Area, any of these four could agree to less. That dynamic encourages Bob Myers and the front office to work quickly like the Spurs had to do with Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili this summer.
Jan 16, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) attempts a shot against Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka (9) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
What it All Means:
If the Warriors want to be players for elite new free agent talent in 2017, they need to have (or be able to get to) about $25 million in space. That is the 30% max available to players like Curry with 7-9 years of NBA experience under the current CBA with a larger and smaller max (25% and 35%, respectively) in play as well. Using the $108 million salary cap estimate, Golden State must be able to have $83 million or less on the books at that point. Considering that free agent class likely includes Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Blake Griffin, there could be someone who fits in well with a Curry/Klay/Green core willing to join a successful franchise.
Thompson, Green, Looney, the 2016 pick estimate and Curry’s cap hold adds up to about $55 million. That leaves less than $30 million for the other players they would like to retain either ahead of time (Barnes, Ezeli, McAdoo, etc) or that summer (Iguodala, Bogut, Livingston, etc). Numerous combinations of players within that collection could produce a truly elite core that can make the transition from recent success to more of a Spursian contention window.
This possibility should also illustrate another key concept: the Warriors can retain both Barnes and Ezeli while maintaining flexibility if they can secure them on reasonable contracts. At something in the $18m and $12m range for each of them, Golden State could still have enough for a difference-maker or try to move one of them if the max-level player functionally replaces them, like Ibaka/Ezeli, presumably.
Another remarkable part of the cap increase is that the Warriors should be able to stay clear of the repeater tax should that matter to ownership. Curry’s pay increase should not be enough to push them from below/near the cap to over the luxury tax and a strategy retaining Bogut and/or Iguodala would likely have similar total numbers too.
After winning the 2015 NBA Championship, the Warriors will still have meaningful chances to add elite free agents the next two summers, a reality that has to affect their decision-making from here on out.