After winning their first championship in forty years, the Warriors and their fans deserved to take some time and soak in the moment. With training camp less than a month away, it is time to shift our attention to what lies ahead.
While the season will bring plenty of intrigue on the court, Golden State faces challenging decisions off it as well even after moving on from David Lee to reduce their tax bill. The second piece in my Proving Ground series focuses on the other Warrior eligible for an extension: forward Harrison Barnes.
Harrison Barnes Right Now:
It is a little shocking that evaluating Festus Ezeli’s long-term future might be easier than doing so for Harrison Barnes, though some of that comes from Ezeli having a clearer role. After all, Centers who can protect the paint and rebound have a place in the league regardless of what else they bring to their team.
Forwards are more complicated because there are more avenues and possibilities. That larger variability makes it harder but more interesting to assess players because their entire skillset matters more to their team’s success.
In many ways, Harrison Barnes’ three point shooting was one of the biggest revelations of the 2014-15 season. He went from a 35-36% shooter from deep to 40.5% last season, a huge improvement. In addition to sinking more of those shots, Barnes also took a higher proportion of his attempts from long range so he was taking and making more threes than before. One notable part of his shooting discernible in the SportVU tracking data is that nearly all of Barnes’ three pointers in 2014-15 were catch and shoot- more than 90% of his attempts came without a single dribble. This was not a change from the prior year but Barnes’ success rate went from 37.1% in those looks in 2013-14 to 42% last season. Where he falls between those two marks will play a major role in determining his offensive value to the Warriors. One concerning factor to consider is that Barnes’ free throw shooting has stayed in the low 70’s during this time which may be an indicator that 2014-15 could be a little stronger than what we should expect moving forward.
Barnes’ defense has improved to a level that works very well with his surrounding talent. While not a true stopper, HB can defend both forward positions competently and did a nice job as a post defender in the playoffs. He likely will never reach the heights of Kawhi Leonard or Tony Allen as a man-to-man defender but Golden State does not really need that from him even though it would be a massively useful luxury. Any improvement from the 23 year old on that end will only make the best defensive team in the league that much tougher to break and help off-set any slowdown Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut face as they get older.
Pool Photo -USA TODAY Sports
Harrison Barnes’ Long-Term Fit:
With Draymond Green signing a five year deal in July, the Warriors have committed long term to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Green. That means analyzing Harrison Barnes on the Warriors has to start and finish with how he meshes with that group.
Defensively, that quartet fits together incredibly well. Barnes’ ability to defend both forward positions works with Draymond’s defensive versatility and that combination allows the Warriors to shut down opponents with a traditional Center like Bogut or go small like they did in the Finals with Draymond at Center. Lineups with those four allowed 95.2 points per 100 possessions last season, which was one of the 25 best four man units in that measure and #2 among groups with more than 1000 minutes played behind another combination of Warriors (Curry, Bogut, Green and Thompson).
Offensively, that group succeeded in 2014-15 but relied heavily on Curry’s incandescence. While Thompson and Barnes excel at hitting clean looks, neither is particularly adept at creating for themselves or teammates. Curry at his best can shoulder that burden but having a secondary creator on the floor would help substantially. Last season, Draymond Green was Golden State’s #2 starter in assist percentage but he ranked 70th in the NBA among players with 1500+ minutes played. Even with that limitation, the Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Green quartet scored a ton of points: 113.9 per 100 possessions, slightly worse than the Clippers when Chris Paul was on the court.
While Curry, Thompson, Green and Barnes played excellently together last season, we do not have much before 2014-15 to reference because Mark Jackson only played them together for 316 minutes the entire previous season (less than ¼ the minutes they played in 2014-15). In that limited time, they did well.
Among realistic options, Harrison Barnes makes sense as the fourth member of Golden State’s core because his strengths reinforce the foundation without taking much away. While a star like Kevin Durant would unsurprisingly be even better, Barnes’ play last season proved that he could be a part of a championship-caliber team as a starter.
Jun 16, 2015; Cleveland, OH: LeBron James (23) shoots against Harrison Barnes (40) during the third quarter of game six of the NBA Finals Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The Extension Game:
At present, Harrison Barnes only carries a $9.68 million hold on Golden State’s books for the 2016-17 season. He will almost assuredly make more than that on his next contract and any new salary replaces that relatively low number immediately when signed.
While the Warriors would have to move some pieces to create meaningful cap space next summer, keeping that option on the table certainly carries some weight with the franchise. Even if a star like Kevin Durant or Al Horford appears to be more of a pipe dream than a likely outcome, Golden State can play both paths to a degree for the time being.
That desire to stay flexible helps Bob Myers’ leverage in extension negotiations with Barnes. Even though Barnes and his agents can argue that some desperate team will give HB the maximum they are allowed to on the higher 2016-17 cap, the Warriors retain the right to match any contract and would have some time (especially with a long July 2016 moratorium) to make moves before doing so. Additionally, Barnes would presumably need to sacrifice annual salary to lock in life-changing money a year ahead of time. Carrying both the trump card of matching rights and a legitimate interest in attempting to secure another big fish changes the situation.
If Barnes was willing to agree to an extension starting at $11-13 million a year, the Warriors probably bite this fall. That represents a meaningful discount from his potential price on the free market and a small enough jump from his cap hold to make the loss in 2016 flexibility palatable.
A starting salary that low does not seem acceptable for Barnes at the moment. Even though Jonas Valanciunas and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist agreed to extensions in that range, the Black Falcon should look at the open market and see a slew of teams that will strike out on the Durants of the world and be willing to eventually take the plunge by making an offer Golden State would be reticent to match like Dallas did with Chandler Parsons. Unlike this summer when talents like Enes Kanter and Tristan Thompson languished as teams filled up their books with other players, Barnes and the other 2016 restricted free agents will find a market with more money to spend than worthwhile players to spend it on. Furthermore, waiting until next summer puts a 3+1 (three years plus a player option) offer sheet on the table while also allowing the Warriors to give Barnes a five year contract without having to pay him his maximum. [Note: This is actually a strange part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement- a rookie extension running five seasons must be for that player’s maximum (with the exception of players qualifying for the Rose Rule), as the Nuggets found out when they had to rework Kenneth Faried’s extension last summer]
I expect Barnes’ camp to counter with a contract in the $16-18 million range but that effectively takes the Warriors out of the Durant sweepstakes while also shifting nearly all of the risk onto the team.
If Barnes is willing to accept a contract for 4/58 or less, we should see an agreement before Halloween. While possible up to around 4/67, anything more than that appears unlikely given the Champs’ lofty aspirations next summer.
Nice rundown. Good data.
But I don’t get the conclusion re 4/58. If the Dubs want to pay no more than $13MM per for a deal now, wouldn’t that mean 4/52 — at most? I guess you think they’d be willing to split the diff between their high low and HB’s low high.
Seems a bit rich. But I thot they paid a bit too much to both Klay and Dray — so I may not have the best take here.
Now, imagine if they sign Festus, too. That would give them a great core five for years to come — tho it’d probably cost at least two of the Bogs-Dre-JThompson trio. And it would put a yearly cost on the 2013 miracle draft at around $45MM — which must be the highest in NBA history for one draft class.