Jun 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; An overall view of the arena during the Golden State Warriors practice prior to the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
At its core, basketball runs on choices big and small. Many focus on coaching decisions like who to play and when but the far more important decisions come on a much smaller, repeatable level. Good offenses narrow their opponent’s options to an unpalatable few and the best defenses do the same. One of my favorite stats in the NBA is that the last non-Pistons team to win an NBA championship without a player who had already won an MVP award was the 1980-81 Celtics who had a young Larry Bird. Stars win titles because they wreak havoc and limit the ways an opponent can succeed.
-== 5 Reasons Why the Warriors Will Beat the Cavaliers ==-
Stephen Curry is the most dangerous perimeter player in the league because his skills are so hard to counter. As a dominant player both on and off the ball, he can make defenses pay in ways that are brutally difficult to prepare for and even harder to handle with the speed of the modern NBA. After all, doubling a player who can see and make the necessary pass proves problematic but devoting a second set of eyes to someone who does not even have the ball in their hands can be even more devastating.
Jun 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
LeBron James forces difficult decisions as well. After all, there has never been an NBA player with his combination of size and speed so any defender will be overmatched in size, speed or more often both. LeBron can then use his uncommon skill and basketball IQ to exacerbate this deficiency to force help, which brings King James’ most potent advantage to the table. He is the best passer at his size in the history of the league and years of dominance have made LeBron comfortable exploiting the seams he creates in a way Curry started to show this season.
That combination of skills and physical gifts make LeBron both a tough and counterintuitive cover. Most great defenses work hard to help but doing that against a well-constructed LeBron team gives them exactly what they want. Guys like James Jones, Iman Shumpert and JR Smith do far better with open looks than when they have to create something themselves. That is why I support a strategy that prioritizes preventing clean looks for everyone else over James getting his, especially if the Warriors can force him into being a jump shooter like the Spurs have tried the last few seasons. While not a foolproof plan (look at the 2013 Finals), it provides the best chance of winning most of the time.
One Cleveland player makes this choice substantially more perilous: Kyrie Irving. Unlike LeBron’s previous Cavs teams, this one has a second creator who can be devastating without King James on the floor. Irving cannot create for teammates like LeBron but does not have to. Even in a clearly limited state, Kyrie did very well against a depleted but still talented Atlanta team in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. Klay did an excellent job once Coach Kerr switched him on to Mike Conley in the middle of the Memphis series and I would expect him to eventually get the same assignment here. Fortunately for the Warriors, Kyrie can be a double-edged sword for Cleveland because they do not have a place to put him defensively against Golden State’s starting lineup. Curry would dominate Kyrie and Klay would have a few advantages to press if they swap Irving with Shumpert. Sliding Kyrie all the way over to Harrison Barnes could work but also puts LeBron on Klay, who can tire out the man shouldering the Cavs’ offensive load by constantly running him through screens.
As a big supporter of counter substitutions, this structure of these teams actually benefits Cleveland which is rare for a Golden State opponent. Making sure Irving is on the court for all critical minutes when one of Curry or Thompson sits brings both an offensive and defensive advantage for Cleveland. It also minimizes those terrible stretches without both Kyrie and LeBron- the Cavs only scored 95 points per 100 possessions during those times in the regular season and were outscored by 14.8 points per 100 possessions during those times. Irving’s injury makes that sub pattern more palatable but David Blatt has to actually use it in order to reap those benefits.
Jun 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Tristan Thompson’s offensive rebounding could play a factor as well. The term “gravity” has become a buzzword for elite shooters but forces like Thompson and DeAndre Jordan have them as well in a different part of the floor. While the Warriors will need to have a body on Tristan after a shot goes up, he cannot victimize his defender for helping before the first shot like Anthony Davis and Zach Randolph in earlier rounds. Thompson is a different challenge but likely more manageable due to a lack of range on his jump shot. Keeping Draymond close to the rim has some ill effects but largely fits in with where Golden State wants him to be on that end.
The main reason this series excites me so much is that neither team has strong options to minimize the other’s strengths. The Warriors can throw a ton of different defenders at LeBron like they did to James Harden at the end of that series but do not possess a Jimmy Butler of Kawhi Leonard capable of making him struggle for everything. On the other end of the court, Iman Shumpert is the best Curry defender but Coach David Blatt has been very resistant to putting him on opposing point guards early in games. That also creates spillover effects by forcing Kyrie on someone new and possibly giving LeBron a more taxing defensive assignment.
I am picking the Warriors in six games because they are better suited to counter or survive Cleveland’s advantages due to superior overall talent and depth. They can go small for heavy portions of games or play more traditional as situations warrant without suffering too badly unless key players miss time due to foul trouble or injury. The Cavs have to stay pretty rigid because injuries to Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao take away some flexibility while a lack of perimeter depth makes it hard for them to stay small. It may feel strange after such a long gap between the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals but cumulative fatigue helps the Warriors a great deal. It could end up closer than some Golden State fans are expecting but they absolutely are the favorites going in.