Draymond Green’s fantastic season came at an excellent time since the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year (which I wrote on last week) gets his first opportunity to be a free agent in July. Since there has been a little confusion on the point and I am a CBA nerd, now felt like the right time to walk through what that means.
-== 7 Reasons Why Stephen Curry is the NBA MVP ==-
First off, Draymond is a Restricted Free Agent. In the current NBA landscape, that means no other team can sign him to a contract the Warriors could not match which presents a gigantic advantage for the Golden State front office. If Bob Myers and company want to keep Mr. Green in the Bay Area, they can. No exceptions.
However, there are a few different paths to get there and the differences matter a great deal in his case.
Option One: Sign an offer sheet with another team.
In this option, Draymond takes an offer from a different team and gives Golden State three days to match. Any offer sheet must be for at least two years and option years do not count, meaning they would have to be added on top of the two. Furthermore, a new team cannot offer a player more than a four year contract or raises of more than 4.5% off the first year salary. Amin Elhassan of ESPN Insider used current cap projections to estimate that a player in Draymond’s circumstance could get a maximum first-year salary of $15,768,500. It would follow then that Draymond’s most desirable offer sheets would be a two-year contract worth around $32 million with a $17 million player option or a three-year contract worth a little over $49 million with an $18 million player option. Considering the fact that the salary cap will rise substantially during the next few years (Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress tweeted the NBA projections), I would expect that if Draymond goes down this road he would take the two-year deal with a player option. That would also give Green the chance to become a free agent in 2017, the same year as Stephen Curry.
Option Two: Sign a new contract with the Warriors
While many Restricted Free Agents go the offer sheet route, they can also just sign with their prior team. Doing so allows them to get a fifth year (or four plus an option) and up to 7.5% raises off the first year salary. Since Draymond can get the same 2015-16 salary either way, the Warriors can use those larger annual raises to offer him more money even for the same contract duration. That said, I would expect Bob Myers to try and convince Mr. Green to take a longer contract since an exploding salary cap makes longer deals more palatable for teams. Plus, if Draymond wants to take a shorter contract he can do so by signing an offer sheet and taking less money after the first season. Since teams do not like player options because they are not designed to work out in the team’s favor (see: Eric Gordon in New Orleans), the Warriors could offer Draymond a full five year max without an option year worth about $89 million or a four year version worth a little over $69 million. At 25 years old, taking a longer contract now would provide plenty of security for Green while still giving him another bite at the free agent apple during his prime.
Option Three: Take the qualifying offer
In order to retain the ability to match an offer sheet for a Restricted Free Agent, a player’s prior team must make him a qualifying offer at a specified amount. In Draymond’s case, from what I can tell that number is $2,725,003. While teams typically use the qualifying offer to secure the ability to retain their players, it also serves as a contract offer that a player can sign and doing so in Draymond’s case would make him an Unrestricted Free Agent in the lucrative Summer of 2016. While not a direct parallel since he was a first round pick, Greg Monroe made a similar bet last summer and now can determine his next step without the Pistons having the option to match.
While taking $2.73 million instead of $15.77 million would be a gigantic gamble, Mr. Elhassan’s estimates put a 2016-17 max contract for Draymond at $20.92 million and remember that the raises in contracts come from the first year salary. This option makes the most sense for players in an improvable situation- that is why I advocated for Anthony Davis to take his qualifying offer to control his own destiny in New Orleans. With Coach Kerr and a strong roster, Green signing a 2+1 (two years plus a player option) offer sheet with another team would strike a better balance of risk and reward.
Conclusion
The next few summers should be incredibly fun because players can make a wide array of different, justifiable choices. If Draymond Green prefers to sign a long-term contract in the early days of the new TV deal rather than the last year of the current lower one, he can. If he would rather have the security of a long, fully guaranteed deal, that will be on the table too. Draymond has earned the right to some excellent options and owes it to himself to choose the path that reflects his priorities.
It would be nice if all players took less, so maybe more people could afford to go the game. $30 to park? I hate to the new prices at the new stadium. Hope they don’ t the Levi Stadium model to finance either.
The total NBA player expenditure is negotiated with the Players Union, NOT the individual players. The players (actually their agents) negotiate with teams for what portion of the Salary Cap goes to each player.
What you are describing is a non-competitive cooperative world – which is not only contrary to human nature, but also contrary to sports.
Note that the D-League Santa Cruz Warriors games are cheaper.
While I think Draymond is attractive to many teams at the current max before the cap jumps I do think there is a figure not much higher that starts to give teams pause. The questions will come up as to whether he’s a product of the system and a 20+ mil gamble to find out if he’s as good in Detroit/wherever. I’m not sure anyone is willing to tie up 25-30% of their cap on him going forward even as valuable as he’s been. Hopefully (for W’s) he goes for the security and takes the longterm option.