By: Ken Cheng
In a season full of signature achievements – highlighted, thus far, by the franchise’s first 61-win-and-counting season and first Pacific Division title in nearly 40 years – the Warriors have firmly established themselves among the league’s historically great, regular season, teams. In their 61 wins, they’ve beaten opponents by an average of 15 points per game, leading to a 10.8 overall point differential that, if it holds, would be the 6th best in NBA history. But of the many mind-blowing team accomplishments this season, the most amazing of all might be the manner in which the Warriors have subtly shifted the competitive paradigm of their games from 48 minute slugfests into suspense-less, three quarter, contests.
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Savvy Warriors fans know by now that Stephen Curry has been able to sit out 16 whole 4th quarters this season due to some form of blowout. But the lack of 4th quarter playing time is hardly a trait exclusive to Curry. Incredibly, the Warriors have managed to win at their historic levels without a single starter ranking among the league’s top 120 in total 4th quarter minutes played. The Warriors’ ability to dominate opponents into submission by the end of the third quarter has routinely rendered vast swathes of 4th quarters into glorified bench scrimmages, allowing starters to get head starts on their nightly post-game ice treatments.
The Warriors’ dominance has been most evident in their trademark 3rd quarters. These “quarters of death” (as Grantland’s Zach Lowe dubbed them) that the Warriors have been able to unleash this season are Exhibit A in the case of why they’ve been so overpowering in the aggregate. The Warriors are an astounding (and league best) +10.1 after three quarters this season – meaning on average, opponents are going into the 4th quarter of games trailing by 10 points. They’re +4 in 3rd quarters, alone, for the season — their highest differential in any quarter. The numbers since the All-Star break have been even gaudier, with the Warriors boasting a +11.5 differential after the first three quarters (+7.3, of which, come from the 3rd quarter). A more detailed comparison of what they’re doing by quarter is telling: the Warriors score the most points and average their highest Field Goal %, 3P%, Offensive Rating, Assist-to-TO Ratio, Effective Field Goal %, and True Shooting %, among others, in the third. As a result of half-time coaching adjustments and increased execution, the Warriors are regularly stepping on their opponents throats before they enter the final frame. It’s not a coincidence that Klay Thompson’s record-setting 37-point explosion (against the Kings) and Steph Curry’s 26-point outburst (against the Mavericks) both occurred in the quarter of death.
Whether the Warriors are able reduce games into 3-quarter affairs in the playoffs remains to be seen. But with the regular season coming to a close, it’s worth pointing out one last related observation. James Harden is often credited as the MVP front runner, and rightfully so, for the way he’s carried the Houston Rockets to a 3 seed despite the bevy of injuries up and down their roster. Stephen Curry, critics point out, has benefited from a more talented and healthier supporting cast around him. But there’s a case to be made that Curry’s impact this season transcends what’s visible on the stat sheets. Curry’s been so good and so integral to his team’s ability to destroy opponents in three quarters, he’s effectively reduced the need for his teammates – his fellow starters, especially – to risk undue wear and tear on their bodies by playing extended minutes. So, if the health of a team’s roster is going to be considered a factor in a player’s MVP candidacy, it might be important to think about which candidate was most able to help spare his teammates from getting hurt in the first place.